Football · Bulgaria Second League · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Sandanski

Team pages: Spartak Pleven · Vihren Sandanski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Spartak Pleven1.36

Vihren Sandanski1.53

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Spartak Pleven Draw Vihren Sandanski

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Pleven 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWWDLL

Vihren Sandanski 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Spartak Pleven 0–2 Vihren Sandanski (2 last)

Spartak Pleven2-3Vihren Sandanski
Vihren Sandanski1-0Spartak Pleven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Pleven 1456 · Vihren Sandanski 1587

	Spartak Pleven	Draw	Vihren Sandanski
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vihren Sandanski (rating 1456 vs 1587).
H2H favours Vihren Sandanski: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Pleven	Vihren Sandanski
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.5 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:57 +3’	2.80	3.20	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Pleven 0–0–2 Vihren Sandanski

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	2-3 HT 1-1	Vihren Sandanski
02/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	Vihren Sandanski	1-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Pleven

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	5	3	2	0	10	5	11
2	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
3	FK Fratria	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
4	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
5	Vihren Sandanski	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Beroe	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
7	Yantra Gabrovo	5	3	0	2	6	6	9
8	Ludogorets Razgrad II	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Montana	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
11	Spartak Pleven	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
12	Marek Dupnitsa	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	5	2	0	3	10	11	6
14	Rilski Sportist	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
15	Chernomorets Burgas	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
15	Sportist Svoge	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	5	1	1	3	7	8	4
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	5	0	0	5	3	19	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Pleven	Vihren Sandanski
Yantra Gabrovo	2-0 W	0-0 D
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-3 L	2-0 W
Minyor Pernik	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Fratria	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vihren Sandanski (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Pleven

DLWWLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
01/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	4-1	5-2	–	–	W
02/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
24/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
16/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D

Vihren Sandanski

WWWDWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
18/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	6	12	W
09/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-2	1	6	W
28/07	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
15/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
04/05	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
25/04	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-0	9	6	W
16/04	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Sandanski?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vihren Sandanski win (40%). Probabilities: Spartak Pleven 32%, draw 28%, Vihren Sandanski 40%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Spartak Pleven 1.36 · Vihren Sandanski 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Pleven vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.