Football · Bulgaria Second League · 01/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs FK Fratria

Team pages: FC Hebar Pazardzhik · FK Fratria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.36

FK Fratria1.29

1X2

38% 28% 34%

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Draw FK Fratria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLWWD

FK Fratria 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 0–2 FK Fratria (2 last)

FK Fratria3-2FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik1-3FK Fratria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1466 · FK Fratria 1562

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Draw	FK Fratria
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1466 vs 1562).
H2H favours FK Fratria: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	FK Fratria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 6.7	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +5’	2.38	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 0–0–2 FK Fratria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
05/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Fratria

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Fratria	6	4	1	1	8	3	13
2	Vihren Sandanski	6	3	3	0	11	6	12
3	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
4	CSKA Sofia II	6	3	2	1	10	6	11
5	Yantra Gabrovo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Montana	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Nesebar	6	3	1	2	13	9	10
8	Beroe	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
9	Chernomorets Burgas	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	6	2	2	2	5	7	8
11	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
12	Spartak Pleven	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
14	Marek Dupnitsa	6	2	1	3	6	6	7
15	Rilski Sportist	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
16	Sportist Svoge	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	6	1	2	3	7	8	5
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	6	0	0	6	3	22	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	FK Fratria
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-2 W	3-0 W
CSKA Sofia II	3-4 L	1-0 W
Vihren Sandanski	2-3 L	2-2 D
Beroe	1-2 L	2-0 W
Marek Dupnitsa	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

LWDLLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
18/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-4	2	5	L
02/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-3	7	6	L
24/07	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-2	10	4	L

FK Fratria

LDWWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
25/07	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
23/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
04/05	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs FK Fratria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (38%). Probabilities: FC Hebar Pazardzhik 38%, draw 28%, FK Fratria 34%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs FK Fratria?

The model expects 2.64 goals (FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.36 · FK Fratria 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs FK Fratria?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.