Football · Bulgaria Second League · 29/08, 19:00

Prediction: FK Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II

Team pages: FK Fratria · CSKA Sofia II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

FK Fratria1.48

CSKA Sofia II0.92

1X2

49% 28% 23%

FK Fratria Draw CSKA Sofia II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Fratria 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLWWWD

CSKA Sofia II 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDWWWD

Head-to-head

FK Fratria 0–1–3 CSKA Sofia II (4 last)

FK Fratria2-2CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II1-0FK Fratria
CSKA Sofia II4-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria0-2CSKA Sofia II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1537 · CSKA Sofia II 1574

	FK Fratria	Draw	CSKA Sofia II
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CSKA Sofia II: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Fratria	CSKA Sofia II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	1.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:27 +6’	1.80	3.30	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 0–1–3 CSKA Sofia II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	2-2 HT 2-2	CSKA Sofia II
24/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Fratria
23/02/25 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	4-1 HT 3-0	FK Fratria
12/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	0-2 HT 0-1	CSKA Sofia II

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	5	3	2	0	10	5	11
2	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
3	FK Fratria	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
4	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
5	Vihren Sandanski	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Beroe	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
7	Yantra Gabrovo	5	3	0	2	6	6	9
8	Ludogorets Razgrad II	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Montana	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
11	Spartak Pleven	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
12	Marek Dupnitsa	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	5	2	0	3	10	11	6
14	Rilski Sportist	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
15	Chernomorets Burgas	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
15	Sportist Svoge	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	5	1	1	3	7	8	4
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	5	0	0	5	3	19	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Fratria	CSKA Sofia II
Vihren Sandanski	2-2 D	1-1 D
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-0 W	3-0 W
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia II (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Fratria

DLDWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
25/07	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
23/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
04/05	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
26/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	5	6	D

CSKA Sofia II

WDLWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	11	8	D
17/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	4-3	4	5	W
03/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
28/07	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
04/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
26/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	1	6	D
22/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (49%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 49%, draw 28%, CSKA Sofia II 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II?

The model expects 2.4 goals (FK Fratria 1.48 · CSKA Sofia II 0.92), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.