Football · Bulgaria Second League · 02/09, 16:00

Prediction: Chernomorets Burgas vs Ludogorets Razgrad II

Team pages: Chernomorets Burgas · Ludogorets Razgrad II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Chernomorets Burgas1.58

Ludogorets Razgrad II0.78

1X2

56% 27% 18%

Chernomorets Burgas Draw Ludogorets Razgrad II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chernomorets Burgas 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWDLLW

Ludogorets Razgrad II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLLDD

Head-to-head

Chernomorets Burgas 1–2–1 Ludogorets Razgrad II (4 last)

Chernomorets Burgas0-0Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II4-2Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas1-1Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II0-1Chernomorets Burgas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chernomorets Burgas 1481 · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1514

	Chernomorets Burgas	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad II
Our model	55%	27%	17%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chernomorets Burgas	Ludogorets Razgrad II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.6 / 2.2	2.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +6’	1.60	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Burgas 1–2–1 Ludogorets Razgrad II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	0-0 HT 0-0	Ludogorets Razgrad II
19/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	Ludogorets Razgrad II	4-2 HT 2-1	Chernomorets Burgas
27/04/24 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-1 HT 0-1	Ludogorets Razgrad II
23/11/23 Bulgaria Second League	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0-1 HT 0-0	Chernomorets Burgas

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Fratria	6	4	1	1	8	3	13
2	Vihren Sandanski	6	3	3	0	11	6	12
3	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
4	CSKA Sofia II	6	3	2	1	10	6	11
5	Yantra Gabrovo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Montana	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Nesebar	6	3	1	2	13	9	10
8	Beroe	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
9	Chernomorets Burgas	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	6	2	2	2	5	7	8
11	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
12	Spartak Pleven	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
14	Marek Dupnitsa	6	2	1	3	6	6	7
15	Rilski Sportist	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
16	Sportist Svoge	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	6	1	2	3	7	8	5
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	6	0	0	6	3	22	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chernomorets Burgas	Ludogorets Razgrad II
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0-1 L	1-1 D
CSKA Sofia II	0-1 L	1-1 D
Vihren Sandanski	1-1 D	0-2 L
Beroe	1-0 W	0-2 L
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-1 D	2-1 W
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chernomorets Burgas

DLWLDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/07	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
23/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Ludogorets Razgrad II

WWLWWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
18/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	12	L
10/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
28/07	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
11/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
04/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Burgas vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chernomorets Burgas win (56%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Burgas 56%, draw 27%, Ludogorets Razgrad II 18%.

How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Burgas vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Chernomorets Burgas 1.58 · Ludogorets Razgrad II 0.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chernomorets Burgas vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.