Football · Bulgaria Second League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Chernomorets Burgas

Team pages: FC Hebar Pazardzhik · Chernomorets Burgas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.38

Chernomorets Burgas1.16

1X2

41% 28% 30%

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Draw Chernomorets Burgas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLLLL

Chernomorets Burgas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWLDWD

Head-to-head

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 0–1–1 Chernomorets Burgas (2 last)

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1-3Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas1-1FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1432 · Chernomorets Burgas 1529

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Draw	Chernomorets Burgas
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1432 vs 1529).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Chernomorets Burgas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:46 +11’	2.15	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 0–1–1 Chernomorets Burgas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-3 HT 1-2	Chernomorets Burgas
25/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	FK Fratria	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
3	CSKA Sofia II	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Montana	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Spartak Pleven	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	Beroe	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
7	Yantra Gabrovo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
8	Nesebar	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
10	Chernomorets Burgas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Vihren Sandanski	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
12	Sportist Svoge	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
13	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
14	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
15	Marek Dupnitsa	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
16	Rilski Sportist	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
17	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3	0	0	3	6	9	0
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	Chernomorets Burgas
Vihren Sandanski	2-3 L	1-1 D
Beroe	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sportist Svoge	0-1 L	1-0 W
Marek Dupnitsa	1-1 D	0-3 L
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

LLLWDLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-4	2	5	L
02/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-3	7	6	L
24/07	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/06	KF Ballkani Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
27/04	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
22/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Chernomorets Burgas

WDWDLWLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/07	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
23/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/04	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
09/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	15	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Chernomorets Burgas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (41%). Probabilities: FC Hebar Pazardzhik 41%, draw 28%, Chernomorets Burgas 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model expects 2.54 goals (FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.38 · Chernomorets Burgas 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.