Football · Bulgaria Second League · 07/09, 17:00
Prediction: FK Fratria vs Chernomorets Burgas
Team pages: FK Fratria · Chernomorets Burgas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
FK Fratria1.52
Chernomorets Burgas0.79
1X2
FK Fratria
Draw
Chernomorets Burgas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Fratria
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Chernomorets Burgas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Fratria
2–0
Chernomorets Burgas
(2 last)
- Chernomorets Burgas0-2FK Fratria
- FK Fratria2-1Chernomorets Burgas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1565 · Chernomorets Burgas 1491
| FK Fratria | Draw | Chernomorets Burgas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1565 vs 1491).
- H2H favours FK Fratria: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Fratria | Chernomorets Burgas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.3 | 1.2 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 2–0–0 Chernomorets Burgas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 Bulgaria Second League | Chernomorets Burgas | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FK Fratria |
| 26/07/25 Bulgaria Second League | FK Fratria | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Chernomorets Burgas |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren Sandanski | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | FK Fratria | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Yantra Gabrovo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Chernomorets Burgas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Beroe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| 8 | Montana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Marek Dupnitsa | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Rilski Sportist | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 15 | Spartak Pleven | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 17 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Fratria | Chernomorets Burgas |
|---|---|---|
| FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| CSKA Sofia II | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Vihren Sandanski | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Beroe | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Marek Dupnitsa | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Pirin Blagoevgrad | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Fratria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/08 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
Chernomorets Burgas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/08 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Chernomorets Burgas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (54%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 54%, draw 27%, Chernomorets Burgas 19%.
How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Chernomorets Burgas?
The model expects 2.31 goals (FK Fratria 1.52 · Chernomorets Burgas 0.79), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Chernomorets Burgas?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.