Football · Bulgaria Second League · 07/09, 18:00

Prediction: Spartak Pleven vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Team pages: Spartak Pleven · FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Spartak Pleven1.36

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.43

1X2

35% 28% 38%

Spartak Pleven Draw FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Pleven 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLLLL

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Spartak Pleven 1–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik (4 last)

FC Hebar Pazardzhik0-3Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven1-2FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Spartak Pleven1-3FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik3-0Spartak Pleven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Pleven 1471 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1477

	Spartak Pleven	Draw	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Pleven	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	4.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +5’	2.60	3.25	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Pleven 1–0–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Bulgaria Second League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0-3 HT 0-1	Spartak Pleven
06/09/25 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
07/12/19 Bulgaria B PFG	Spartak Pleven	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
20/07/19 Bulgaria B PFG	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Pleven

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	7	4	3	0	15	7	15
2	FK Fratria	7	4	2	1	9	4	14
3	CSKA Sofia II	7	4	2	1	15	7	14
4	Yantra Gabrovo	7	4	1	2	9	7	13
5	Chernomorets Burgas	7	3	2	2	7	4	11
6	Beroe	7	3	2	2	9	6	11
7	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
8	Montana	7	3	2	2	12	8	11
9	Marek Dupnitsa	7	3	1	3	7	6	10
10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	7	3	1	3	7	9	10
11	Nesebar	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
12	Rilski Sportist	7	2	3	2	7	7	9
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
15	Spartak Pleven	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
16	Sportist Svoge	7	1	3	3	4	6	6
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	7	1	2	4	7	10	5
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	7	0	0	7	3	24	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Pleven	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
CSKA Sofia II	1-5 L	3-4 L
Vihren Sandanski	0-2 L	2-3 L
Beroe	0-3 L	1-2 L
Marek Dupnitsa	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Hebar Pazardzhik (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Pleven

WWLWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-5	7	3	L
30/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
25/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
01/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	4-1	5-2	–	–	W
02/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

WDLLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
29/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
18/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-4	2	5	L
02/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-3	7	6	L
24/07	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Pleven vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Hebar Pazardzhik win (38%). Probabilities: Spartak Pleven 35%, draw 28%, FC Hebar Pazardzhik 38%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Pleven vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Spartak Pleven 1.36 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.43), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Pleven vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.