Football · Bulgaria Second League · 17/08, 17:00

Prediction: Chernomorets Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II

Team pages: Chernomorets Burgas · CSKA Sofia II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Chernomorets Burgas1.22

CSKA Sofia II1.24

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Chernomorets Burgas Draw CSKA Sofia II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chernomorets Burgas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWLDWD

CSKA Sofia II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Chernomorets Burgas 1–1–0 CSKA Sofia II (2 last)

Chernomorets Burgas3-0CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II1-1Chernomorets Burgas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chernomorets Burgas 1530 · CSKA Sofia II 1567

	Chernomorets Burgas	Draw	CSKA Sofia II
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chernomorets Burgas	CSKA Sofia II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +4’	2.55	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Burgas 1–1–0 CSKA Sofia II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	3-0 HT 2-0	CSKA Sofia II
06/09/25 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	1-1 HT 1-1	Chernomorets Burgas

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	FK Fratria	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
3	CSKA Sofia II	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Spartak Pleven	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
5	Beroe	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
6	Ludogorets Razgrad II	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
7	Chernomorets Burgas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
8	Vihren Sandanski	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
9	Sportist Svoge	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
11	Montana	3	1	1	1	7	6	4
12	Marek Dupnitsa	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
13	Yantra Gabrovo	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
14	Nesebar	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
15	Rilski Sportist	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
16	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3	0	1	2	2	5	1
17	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3	0	0	3	6	9	0
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chernomorets Burgas	CSKA Sofia II
Vihren Sandanski	1-1 D	1-1 D
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-1 D	3-0 W
FC Sevlievo	2-3 L	6-1 W
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3-1 W	4-3 W
Pirin Blagoevgrad	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chernomorets Burgas

WDWDLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/07	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
23/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/04	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
09/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	15	2	W

CSKA Sofia II

WWWDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	4-3	4	5	W
03/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
28/07	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
04/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
26/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	1	6	D
22/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
17/04	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	1-1	6-1	10	6	W
10/04	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia II win (36%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Burgas 35%, draw 29%, CSKA Sofia II 36%.

How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Chernomorets Burgas 1.22 · CSKA Sofia II 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chernomorets Burgas vs CSKA Sofia II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.