Football · Bulgaria Second League · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sportist Svoge vs Nesebar
Team pages: Sportist Svoge · Nesebar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Sportist Svoge1.81
Nesebar0.86
1X2
Sportist Svoge
Draw
Nesebar
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sportist Svoge
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Nesebar
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sportist Svoge
0–1–1
Nesebar
(2 last)
- Sportist Svoge0-0Nesebar
- Nesebar2-1Sportist Svoge
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sportist Svoge 1493 · Nesebar 1557
| Sportist Svoge | Draw | Nesebar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nesebar (rating 1493 vs 1557).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sportist Svoge | Nesebar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.3 | 3.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 67/22/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.8 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportist Svoge 0–1–1 Nesebar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/25 Bulgaria Second League | Sportist Svoge | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nesebar |
| 18/08/24 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sportist Svoge |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | FK Fratria | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Spartak Pleven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Beroe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Chernomorets Burgas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Vihren Sandanski | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Sportist Svoge | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Montana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Marek Dupnitsa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Yantra Gabrovo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Nesebar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Rilski Sportist | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sportist Svoge | Nesebar |
|---|---|---|
| PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Montana | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sportist Svoge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/05 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/04 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/04 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 14 | 5 | L |
Nesebar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Montana Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Spartak Varna Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Asenovets Bulgaria Third League |
4-1 | 8-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Zagorets Bulgaria Third League |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Spartak Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Maritsa Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Yambol 1915 Bulgaria Third League |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Rozova Dolina Bulgaria Third League |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sportist Svoge vs Nesebar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportist Svoge win (59%). Probabilities: Sportist Svoge 59%, draw 25%, Nesebar 16%.
How many goals are expected in Sportist Svoge vs Nesebar?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Sportist Svoge 1.81 · Nesebar 0.86), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sportist Svoge vs Nesebar?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.