Football · Bulgaria Second League · 12/09, 17:00
Prediction: Chernomorets Burgas vs Spartak Pleven
Team pages: Chernomorets Burgas · Spartak Pleven
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Chernomorets Burgas1.78
Spartak Pleven0.79
1X2
Chernomorets Burgas
Draw
Spartak Pleven
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chernomorets Burgas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Spartak Pleven
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chernomorets Burgas
4–0
Spartak Pleven
(4 last)
- Spartak Pleven1-2Chernomorets Burgas
- Chernomorets Burgas2-0Spartak Pleven
- Spartak Pleven1-2Chernomorets Burgas
- Chernomorets Burgas3-0Spartak Pleven
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chernomorets Burgas 1515 · Spartak Pleven 1454
| Chernomorets Burgas | Draw | Spartak Pleven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1515 vs 1454).
- H2H favours Chernomorets Burgas: 4-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chernomorets Burgas | Spartak Pleven | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.7 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Burgas 4–0–0 Spartak Pleven
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Bulgaria Second League | Spartak Pleven | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Chernomorets Burgas |
| 30/08/25 Bulgaria Second League | Chernomorets Burgas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Pleven |
| 02/05/24 Bulgaria Second League | Spartak Pleven | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Chernomorets Burgas |
| 21/10/23 Bulgaria Second League | Chernomorets Burgas | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Pleven |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yantra Gabrovo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Vihren Sandanski | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | FK Fratria | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | CSKA Sofia II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Nesebar | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | Beroe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Montana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Chernomorets Burgas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Marek Dupnitsa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Rilski Sportist | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 15 | Spartak Pleven | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 17 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chernomorets Burgas | Spartak Pleven |
|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets Razgrad II | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| CSKA Sofia II | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Vihren Sandanski | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Beroe | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Marek Dupnitsa | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chernomorets Burgas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/08 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Spartak Pleven
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Beroe Bulgaria Second League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
4-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Burgas vs Spartak Pleven?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chernomorets Burgas win (60%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Burgas 60%, draw 25%, Spartak Pleven 15%.
How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Burgas vs Spartak Pleven?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Chernomorets Burgas 1.78 · Spartak Pleven 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chernomorets Burgas vs Spartak Pleven?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.