Football · Bulgaria Second League · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad II vs FK Fratria

Team pages: Ludogorets Razgrad II · FK Fratria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Ludogorets Razgrad II0.8

FK Fratria1.34

1X2

22% 28% 49%

Ludogorets Razgrad II Draw FK Fratria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ludogorets Razgrad II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLDDL

FK Fratria 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Ludogorets Razgrad II 1–2–2 FK Fratria (5 last)

Ludogorets Razgrad II1-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria5-0Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II1-3FK Fratria
FK Fratria2-2Ludogorets Razgrad II
Ludogorets Razgrad II2-0FK Fratria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1491 · FK Fratria 1557

	Ludogorets Razgrad II	Draw	FK Fratria
Our model	21%	31%	48%
Market	23%	27%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1491 vs 1557).
H2H favours FK Fratria: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ludogorets Razgrad II	FK Fratria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.3	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.40

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +7’	3.90	3.40	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1–2–2 FK Fratria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Bulgaria Second League	Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Fratria
06/09/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	5-0 HT 2-0	Ludogorets Razgrad II
28/06/25 Club Friendly List	Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Fratria
16/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	2-2 HT 2-1	Ludogorets Razgrad II
02/09/24 Bulgaria Second League	Ludogorets Razgrad II	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Fratria

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Yantra Gabrovo	8	5	1	2	12	7	16
2	Vihren Sandanski	7	4	3	0	15	7	15
3	FK Fratria	7	4	2	1	9	4	14
4	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	8	4	2	2	14	11	14
5	CSKA Sofia II	8	4	2	2	15	8	14
6	Nesebar	8	4	1	3	15	11	13
7	Beroe	8	3	3	2	11	8	12
8	Montana	7	3	2	2	12	8	11
9	Chernomorets Burgas	7	3	2	2	7	4	11
10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	7	3	1	3	7	9	10
10	Marek Dupnitsa	8	3	1	4	7	9	10
12	Rilski Sportist	8	2	3	3	8	9	9
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
15	Spartak Pleven	7	2	1	4	7	14	7
16	Sportist Svoge	7	1	3	3	4	6	6
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	8	1	3	4	9	12	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	7	0	0	7	3	24	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ludogorets Razgrad II	FK Fratria
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-1 D	1-1 D
CSKA Sofia II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vihren Sandanski	0-2 L	2-2 D
Beroe	0-2 L	2-0 W
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-1 W	2-0 W
Rilski Sportist	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ludogorets Razgrad II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
18/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	12	L
10/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
28/07	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
11/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

FK Fratria

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
25/07	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
23/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs FK Fratria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Fratria win (49%). Probabilities: Ludogorets Razgrad II 22%, draw 28%, FK Fratria 49%.

How many goals are expected in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs FK Fratria?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Ludogorets Razgrad II 0.8 · FK Fratria 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ludogorets Razgrad II vs FK Fratria?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.