Football · Bulgaria Second League · 03/09, 16:00

Prediction: CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven

Team pages: CSKA Sofia II · Spartak Pleven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

CSKA Sofia II2.05

Spartak Pleven0.94

1X2

62% 22% 16%

CSKA Sofia II Draw Spartak Pleven

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CSKA Sofia II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWWDL

Spartak Pleven 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDLLL

Head-to-head

CSKA Sofia II 1–2–1 Spartak Pleven (4 last)

CSKA Sofia II4-0Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven2-1CSKA Sofia II
Spartak Pleven0-0CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II0-0Spartak Pleven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia II 1556 · Spartak Pleven 1457

	CSKA Sofia II	Draw	Spartak Pleven
Our model	62%	22%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia II (rating 1556 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSKA Sofia II	Spartak Pleven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.10

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +17’	1.44	4.10	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia II 1–2–1 Spartak Pleven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	4-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Pleven
27/07/25 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	2-1 HT 1-0	CSKA Sofia II
09/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	0-0 HT 0-0	CSKA Sofia II
25/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	0-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Pleven

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Fratria	6	4	1	1	8	3	13
2	Vihren Sandanski	6	3	3	0	11	6	12
3	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
4	CSKA Sofia II	6	3	2	1	10	6	11
5	Yantra Gabrovo	6	3	1	2	7	7	10
6	Montana	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Nesebar	6	3	1	2	13	9	10
8	Beroe	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
9	Chernomorets Burgas	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
10	Ludogorets Razgrad II	6	2	2	2	5	7	8
11	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
12	Spartak Pleven	6	2	1	3	6	9	7
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
14	Marek Dupnitsa	6	2	1	3	6	6	7
15	Rilski Sportist	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
16	Sportist Svoge	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	6	1	2	3	7	8	5
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	6	0	0	6	3	22	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSKA Sofia II	Spartak Pleven
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-1 D	1-3 L
Vihren Sandanski	1-1 D	0-2 L
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3-0 W	0-1 L
Minyor Pernik	2-1 W	1-0 W
Yantra Gabrovo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSKA Sofia II

DLWWDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	11	8	D
17/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	4-3	4	5	W
03/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
28/07	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
04/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
26/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	1	6	D

Spartak Pleven

LWWLWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
25/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
01/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	4-1	5-2	–	–	W
02/05	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
24/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia II win (62%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia II 62%, draw 22%, Spartak Pleven 16%.

How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven?

The model expects 2.98 goals (CSKA Sofia II 2.05 · Spartak Pleven 0.94), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.