Football · Bulgaria Second League · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: Sportist Svoge vs Marek Dupnitsa

Team pages: Sportist Svoge · Marek Dupnitsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Sportist Svoge1.15

Marek Dupnitsa0.99

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Sportist Svoge Draw Marek Dupnitsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportist Svoge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDDWLL

Marek Dupnitsa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Sportist Svoge 2–2–2 Marek Dupnitsa (6 last)

Sportist Svoge3-1Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa0-0Sportist Svoge
Marek Dupnitsa0-0Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge0-2Marek Dupnitsa
Sportist Svoge3-1Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa2-0Sportist Svoge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportist Svoge 1487 · Marek Dupnitsa 1490

	Sportist Svoge	Draw	Marek Dupnitsa
Our model	38%	32%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportist Svoge	Marek Dupnitsa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 2.9	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:23 +4’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportist Svoge 2–2–2 Marek Dupnitsa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	3-1 HT 3-1	Marek Dupnitsa
02/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge
26/04/25 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge
24/10/24 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	0-2 HT 0-1	Marek Dupnitsa
03/05/24 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	3-1 HT 0-1	Marek Dupnitsa
21/10/23 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	2-0 HT 1-0	Sportist Svoge

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	5	3	2	0	10	5	11
2	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	5	3	1	1	10	5	10
3	FK Fratria	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
4	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
5	Vihren Sandanski	5	2	3	0	9	6	9
6	Beroe	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
7	Yantra Gabrovo	5	3	0	2	6	6	9
8	Ludogorets Razgrad II	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Montana	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
11	Spartak Pleven	5	2	1	2	6	7	7
12	Marek Dupnitsa	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	5	2	0	3	10	11	6
14	Rilski Sportist	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
15	Chernomorets Burgas	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
15	Sportist Svoge	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	5	1	1	3	7	8	4
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	5	0	0	5	3	19	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportist Svoge	Marek Dupnitsa
Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-0 W	0-0 D
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0-0 D	4-2 W
Montana	2-2 D	0-1 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-0 W	1-1 D
Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 L	3-0 W
Belasitsa	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportist Svoge

WLWLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
09/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/07	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	1-2	3-2	2	4	W

Marek Dupnitsa

WDWDWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	2-1	4-2	5	9	W
16/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
01/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
25/07	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/05	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
02/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
25/04	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportist Svoge vs Marek Dupnitsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportist Svoge win (39%). Probabilities: Sportist Svoge 39%, draw 31%, Marek Dupnitsa 30%.

How many goals are expected in Sportist Svoge vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Sportist Svoge 1.15 · Marek Dupnitsa 0.99), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportist Svoge vs Marek Dupnitsa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.