Football · Bulgaria Second League · 25/07, 17:30
Prediction: Nesebar vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Nesebar1.56
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1.54
1X2
Nesebar
Draw
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nesebar
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nesebar
0–1–4
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
(5 last)
- Nesebar0-2Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
- Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo3-0Nesebar
- Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo2-1Nesebar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nesebar 1606 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1501
| Nesebar | Draw | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nesebar (rating 1606 vs 1501).
- H2H favours Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo: 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nesebar | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 78/22/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 5.3 | 3.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nesebar 0–1–4 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/25 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo |
| 16/11/24 Bulgaria Second League | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Nesebar |
| 04/07/18 Europe Friendlies | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Nesebar |
| 27/05/17 Bulgaria Second League | Nesebar | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo |
| 30/11/16 Bulgaria Second League | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Nesebar |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernomorets Burgas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Fratria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportist Svoge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yantra Gabrovo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nesebar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marek Dupnitsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Montana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Beroe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vihren Sandanski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rilski Sportist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Pleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nesebar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Spartak Varna Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Asenovets Bulgaria Third League |
4-1 | 8-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Zagorets Bulgaria Third League |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Spartak Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Maritsa Plovdiv Bulgaria Third League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Yambol 1915 Bulgaria Third League |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Rozova Dolina Bulgaria Third League |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Atletik Kuklen Bulgaria Third League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | FK Gigant Saedinie Bulgaria Third League |
3-0 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/04 | FC Marica Milevo Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Botev Plovdiv Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Ludogorets Razgrad Club Friendly List |
2-5 | 4-7 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/06 | Levski Sofia Club Friendly List |
0-5 | 0-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nesebar vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nesebar win (36%). Probabilities: Nesebar 36%, draw 28%, Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 36%.
How many goals are expected in Nesebar vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Nesebar 1.56 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1.54), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nesebar vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.