Football · Bulgaria Second League · 25/07, 19:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1.11

Chernomorets Burgas1.08

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Draw Chernomorets Burgas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLLLW

Chernomorets Burgas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWDLWL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2–2–0 Chernomorets Burgas (4 last)

Chernomorets Burgas0-0Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0-0Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas1-3Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1460 · Chernomorets Burgas 1513

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Draw	Chernomorets Burgas
Our model	35%	32%	33%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1460 vs 1513).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa: 2-2-0.
High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Chernomorets Burgas
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	5 / 10.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +7’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2–2–0 Chernomorets Burgas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
23/08/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Chernomorets Burgas
09/04/15 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-3 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
13/09/14 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-0 HT 1-0	Chernomorets Burgas

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chernomorets Burgas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Fratria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportist Svoge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yantra Gabrovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nesebar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CSKA Sofia II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marek Dupnitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Beroe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vihren Sandanski	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rilski Sportist	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartak Pleven	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Chernomorets Burgas
Dunav Ruse	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-3 L	0-0 D
FC Sevlievo	2-1 W	2-3 L
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	1-0 W
Marek Dupnitsa	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

LWWLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/06	Dunav Ruse Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-4	2-5	–	–	L
11/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
25/04	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
17/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	3	5	D
09/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/04	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
29/03	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
21/03	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	3	6	L

Chernomorets Burgas

WDLWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
16/04	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
09/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	15	2	W
04/04	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	18	5	L
29/03	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
21/03	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa win (35%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 35%, draw 31%, Chernomorets Burgas 34%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.11 · Chernomorets Burgas 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.