Football · Bulgaria Second League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Team pages: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1.33

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo1.59

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Draw Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWDLLW

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1–1–2 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (4 last)

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo2-1Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa0-1Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo0-0Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1-0Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1441 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1547

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Draw	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (rating 1441 vs 1547).
H2H favours Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:19 +37’	2.88	3.30	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1–1–2 Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-1 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
06/09/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-1 HT 0-1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
23/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
07/09/24 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-0 HT 0-0	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	FK Fratria	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
3	CSKA Sofia II	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Montana	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Spartak Pleven	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	Beroe	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
7	Yantra Gabrovo	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
8	Nesebar	4	2	0	2	5	8	6
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
10	Chernomorets Burgas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Vihren Sandanski	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
12	Sportist Svoge	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
13	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
14	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
15	Marek Dupnitsa	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
16	Rilski Sportist	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
17	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3	0	0	3	6	9	0
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-2 L	1-0 W
Yantra Gabrovo	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

DLLLLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
03/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Dunav Ruse Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-4	2-5	–	–	L
11/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
25/04	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
17/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	3	5	D

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

LWLLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
07/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
25/07	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	3-1	5-1	9	5	W
04/07	Botev Plovdiv Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/06	Ludogorets Razgrad Club Friendly List	2-5	4-7	3	6	L
23/06	Levski Sofia Club Friendly List	0-5	0-6	1	1	L
23/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
10/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo win (42%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 31%, draw 27%, Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 42%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.33 · Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo 1.59), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.