Football · Bulgaria Second League · 16/08, 19:00

Prediction: Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Team pages: Spartak Pleven · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Spartak Pleven1.9

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1.16

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Spartak Pleven Draw Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Pleven 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLWWD

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Spartak Pleven 1–1–4 Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa (6 last)

Spartak Pleven5-2Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa3-1Spartak Pleven
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa2-0Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven2-2Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Spartak Pleven2-3Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa3-0Spartak Pleven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Pleven 1494 · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1435

	Spartak Pleven	Draw	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spartak Pleven (rating 1494 vs 1435).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Pleven	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.4	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +1’	1.70	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Pleven 1–1–4 Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	5-2 HT 4-1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
16/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3-1 HT 1-1	Spartak Pleven
17/05/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Pleven
23/11/24 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	2-2 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
22/01/21 Europe Friendlies	Spartak Pleven	2-3 HT 2-2	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
30/09/19 Bulgaria B PFG	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3-0 HT 2-0	Spartak Pleven

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	FK Fratria	4	3	0	1	5	1	9
3	CSKA Sofia II	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Spartak Pleven	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
5	Beroe	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
6	Ludogorets Razgrad II	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
7	Chernomorets Burgas	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
8	Vihren Sandanski	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
9	Sportist Svoge	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
11	Montana	3	1	1	1	7	6	4
12	Marek Dupnitsa	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
13	Yantra Gabrovo	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
14	Nesebar	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
15	Rilski Sportist	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
16	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3	0	1	2	2	5	1
17	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3	0	0	3	6	9	0
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Pleven	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Yantra Gabrovo	2-0 W	2-2 D
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Spartak Pleven

WLLLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
01/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
14/07	Hapoel Petah Tikva Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
07/07	Yantra Gabrovo Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
03/07	Cherno More Varna Club Friendly List	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
01/07	Botev Vratsa Club Friendly List	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
23/06	Botev Plovdiv Club Friendly List	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
23/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
15/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	4-1	5-2	–	–	W

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

LDLLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
03/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Dunav Ruse Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-4	2-5	–	–	L
11/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
25/04	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
17/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	3	5	D
09/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spartak Pleven win (53%). Probabilities: Spartak Pleven 53%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 22%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Spartak Pleven 1.9 · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.16), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Pleven vs Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.