Prediction: San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Independiente Women
Expected goals: 2.99 (San Lorenzo (W) 2.45 · CA Independiente Women 0.55). The model gives 79% home, 15% draw, 6% away. Over 2.75 goals (52%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.
On recent form, San Lorenzo (W) is 8-1-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and CA Independiente Women 3-1-6 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for San Lorenzo (W) and 2 for CA Independiente Women, with 2 draws.
| San Lorenzo (W) | Draw | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 79% | 15% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1595 vs 1456).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo (W) | CA Independiente Women | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo (W) 2–2–2 CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 25/08/24 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 0-1 HT 0-1 | San Lorenzo (W) |
| 29/03/24 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 09/10/23 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | CA Independiente Women |
| 07/05/23 Argentina Championship Women | San Lorenzo (W) | 1-4 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente Women |
| 15/08/22 Argentina Championship Women | CA Independiente Women | 1-2 HT 1-1 | San Lorenzo (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Club (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Banfield (W) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 16 |
| 7 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Boca Juniors (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| 10 | San Luis FC (W) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| 11 | Belgrano (W) | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| 12 | Huracan (W) | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 13 | Lanus (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo (W) | CA Independiente Women |
|---|---|---|
| Huracan (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Belgrano (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| River Plate (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 1-0 W | 1-6 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 22/05 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 27/03 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/03 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
CA Independiente Women
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 20/03 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo (W) win (79%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo (W) 79%, draw 15%, CA Independiente Women 6%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model expects 2.99 goals (San Lorenzo (W) 2.45 · CA Independiente Women 0.55), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Independiente Women?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.