Football · Argentina Championship Women · 13/07, 16:00
Prediction: River Plate (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
River Plate (W)1.75
Social Atletico Television (W)0.93
1X2
River Plate (W)
Draw
Social Atletico Television (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
River Plate (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Social Atletico Television (W)
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
River Plate (W)
5–1
Social Atletico Television (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · River Plate (W) 1527 · Social Atletico Television (W) 1475
| River Plate (W) | Draw | Social Atletico Television (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours River Plate (W) (rating 1527 vs 1475).
- H2H favours River Plate (W): 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| River Plate (W) | Social Atletico Television (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.1 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate (W) 5–0–1 Social Atletico Television (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Argentina Championship Women | Social Atletico Television (W) | 2-3 HT 2-1 | River Plate (W) |
| 02/05/25 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Social Atletico Television (W) |
| 25/11/24 Argentina Championship Women | Social Atletico Television (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | River Plate (W) |
| 09/07/24 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Social Atletico Television (W) |
| 10/10/23 Argentina Championship Women | Social Atletico Television (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | River Plate (W) |
| 15/04/23 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Social Atletico Television (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Club (W) | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 8 | 32 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Belgrano (W) | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 23 | 19 |
| 8 | Banfield (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 18 |
| 10 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | San Luis FC (W) | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 12 | Huracan (W) | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 14 |
| 13 | Lanus (W) | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 30 | 3 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | River Plate (W) | Social Atletico Television (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Banfield (W) | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Racing Club (W) | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Boca Juniors (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Lanus (W) | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| San Luis FC (W) | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: River Plate (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
River Plate (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 25/05 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
Social Atletico Television (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in River Plate (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate (W) win (55%). Probabilities: River Plate (W) 55%, draw 27%, Social Atletico Television (W) 18%.
How many goals are expected in River Plate (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W)?
The model expects 2.68 goals (River Plate (W) 1.75 · Social Atletico Television (W) 0.93), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in River Plate (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.