Prediction: Gimnasia LP (W) vs River Plate (W)
Expected goals: 2.23 (Gimnasia LP (W) 1 · River Plate (W) 1.24). The model gives 29% home, 31% draw, 41% away. Over 2 goals (53%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Gimnasia LP (W) with 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; River Plate (W) has piled up 6-2-2 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Gimnasia LP (W) and 3 for River Plate (W), with 1 draw.
| Gimnasia LP (W) | Draw | River Plate (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 30% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours River Plate (W) (rating 1494 vs 1543).
- H2H favours River Plate (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia LP (W) | River Plate (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.9 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP (W) 2–1–3 River Plate (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/25 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 08/03/25 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | River Plate (W) |
| 22/09/24 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Gimnasia LP (W) |
| 12/06/24 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | River Plate (W) |
| 06/05/23 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | River Plate (W) |
| 28/08/22 Argentina Championship Women | Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | River Plate (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Club (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Banfield (W) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 16 |
| 7 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Boca Juniors (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| 10 | San Luis FC (W) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| 11 | Belgrano (W) | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
| 12 | Huracan (W) | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| 13 | Lanus (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia LP (W) | River Plate (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club (W) | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| San Lorenzo (W) | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Boca Juniors (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lanus (W) | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| San Luis FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: River Plate (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia LP (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 11/05 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/03 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 22/03 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
River Plate (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 25/05 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 29/03 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP (W) vs River Plate (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP (W) 29%, draw 31%, River Plate (W) 41%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP (W) vs River Plate (W)?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Gimnasia LP (W) 1 · River Plate (W) 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP (W) vs River Plate (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.