Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 12/08, 11:30

Prediction: Lions FC (W) vs Gold Coast United (W)

Team pages: Lions FC (W) · Gold Coast United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Lions FC (W)2.19

Gold Coast United (W)0.91

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Lions FC (W) Draw Gold Coast United (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Lions FC (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWWW

Gold Coast United (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDDLLW

Head-to-head

Lions FC (W) 5–1–0 Gold Coast United (W) (6 last)

Gold Coast United (W)0-3Lions FC (W)
Lions FC (W)1-0Gold Coast United (W)
Lions FC (W)3-2Gold Coast United (W)
Gold Coast United (W)0-4Lions FC (W)
Lions FC (W)1-1Gold Coast United (W)
Lions FC (W)2-0Gold Coast United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC (W) 1615 · Gold Coast United (W) 1485

	Lions FC (W)	Draw	Gold Coast United (W)
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	68%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (W) (rating 1615 vs 1485).
H2H favours Lions FC (W): 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC (W)	Gold Coast United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.8	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.8	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.7 / 0	0.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Pinn 7.59 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +2’	1.33	5.50	5.75
06:08 +4’	1.33	5.50	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +1’	1.30	4.94	7.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC (W) 5–1–0 Gold Coast United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	0-3 HT 0-3	Lions FC (W)
07/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United (W)
27/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	3-2 HT 2-0	Gold Coast United (W)
22/04/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Lions FC (W)
01/03/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Gold Coast United (W)
06/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Gold Coast United (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	26	18	4	4	71	21	58
2	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	26	17	4	5	50	20	55
3	Lions FC (W)	25	17	3	5	63	22	54
4	Brisbane City (W)	26	14	7	5	56	21	49
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	26	11	7	8	37	31	40
6	Gold Coast United (W)	25	9	8	8	38	35	35
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	26	9	2	15	34	40	29
8	Capalaba (W)	26	8	1	17	32	58	25
9	FQ QAS Women	26	7	1	18	47	77	22
10	Souths United NPL (W)	26	0	1	25	15	118	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC (W)	Gold Coast United (W)
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	2-0 W	0-3 L
Souths United NPL (W)	6-1 W	12-0 W
Gold Coast Knights (W)	3-0 W	0-1 L
Capalaba (W)	3-1 W	2-0 W
Brisbane City (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	3-1 W	0-0 D
Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	5-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lions FC (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lions FC (W)

WDLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-1	6-1	12	0	W
29/07	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
24/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	3-1	5	0	W
18/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
11/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	5-0	4	0	W
30/06	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
23/06	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
20/06	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	3-1	0	2	W

Gold Coast United (W)

WDDWWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
04/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-3	7	0	L
01/08	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
18/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
14/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-2	6	1	W
04/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	7-0	12-0	10	2	W
30/06	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
24/06	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/06	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lions FC (W) vs Gold Coast United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Lions FC (W) 67%, draw 18%, Gold Coast United (W) 15%.

How many goals are expected in Lions FC (W) vs Gold Coast United (W)?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Lions FC (W) 2.19 · Gold Coast United (W) 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lions FC (W) vs Gold Coast United (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.