Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 07/08, 11:30

Prediction: Gold Coast United (W) vs Capalaba (W)

Team pages: Gold Coast United (W) · Capalaba (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Gold Coast United (W)2.14

Capalaba (W)1.19

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Gold Coast United (W) Draw Capalaba (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast United (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWDDLL

Capalaba (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Gold Coast United (W) 6–0 Capalaba (W) (6 last)

Gold Coast United (W)2-1Capalaba (W)
Capalaba (W)1-2Gold Coast United (W)
Gold Coast United (W)5-1Capalaba (W)
Capalaba (W)3-4Gold Coast United (W)
Gold Coast United (W)3-1Capalaba (W)
Gold Coast United (W)2-1Capalaba (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast United (W) 1506 · Capalaba (W) 1445

	Gold Coast United (W)	Draw	Capalaba (W)
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast United (W) (rating 1506 vs 1445).
H2H favours Gold Coast United (W): 6-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast United (W)	Capalaba (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.8 / 0	0.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +3’	1.53	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast United (W) 6–0–0 Capalaba (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Capalaba (W)
07/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Capalaba (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United (W)
24/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Capalaba (W)
22/04/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Capalaba (W)	3-4 HT 0-2	Gold Coast United (W)
11/02/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Capalaba (W)
09/07/22 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	2-1	Capalaba (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	25	18	4	3	71	19	58
2	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	25	16	4	5	48	20	52
3	Lions FC (W)	24	16	3	5	61	22	51
4	Brisbane City (W)	25	14	7	4	54	18	49
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	25	10	7	8	31	31	37
6	Gold Coast United (W)	24	8	8	8	36	35	32
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	25	9	2	14	34	38	29
8	Capalaba (W)	25	8	1	16	32	56	25
9	FQ QAS Women	25	6	1	18	44	75	19
10	Souths United NPL (W)	25	0	1	24	15	112	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast United (W)	Capalaba (W)
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Gold Coast Knights (W)	0-1 L	1-5 L
Brisbane City (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
FQ QAS Women	3-2 W	3-0 W
Souths United NPL (W)	12-0 W	6-0 W
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	0-0 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gold Coast United (W)

LWDDWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-3	7	0	L
01/08	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
18/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
14/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-2	6	1	W
04/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	7-0	12-0	10	2	W
30/06	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
24/06	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/06	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
06/06	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-2	8	0	L

Capalaba (W)

LLDWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
24/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	1-3	4	0	L
19/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
14/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
11/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	4-0	6-0	5	1	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-5	0	0	L
30/06	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-0	3-0	6	1	W
23/06	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-2	5	1	D
20/06	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
06/06	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-3	0	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast United (W) vs Capalaba (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gold Coast United (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Gold Coast United (W) 58%, draw 22%, Capalaba (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast United (W) vs Capalaba (W)?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Gold Coast United (W) 2.14 · Capalaba (W) 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast United (W) vs Capalaba (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.