Football · Scotland Premier League Women · 23/08, 17:00

Prediction: Motherwell (W) vs Hearts (W)

Team pages: Motherwell (W) · Hearts (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Motherwell (W)1.01

Hearts (W)3.01

1X2

5% 11% 84%

Motherwell (W) Draw Hearts (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Hearts (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Motherwell (W) 0–1–5 Hearts (W) (6 last)

Motherwell (W)0-3Hearts (W)
Hearts (W)3-0Motherwell (W)
Motherwell (W)0-6Hearts (W)
Hearts (W)2-0Motherwell (W)
Motherwell (W)0-0Hearts (W)
Hearts (W)6-1Motherwell (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell (W) 1522 · Hearts (W) 1609

	Motherwell (W)	Draw	Hearts (W)
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	2%	8%	90%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hearts (W) (rating 1522 vs 1609).
H2H favours Hearts (W): 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell (W)	Hearts (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.2	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.3	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

141.00

X12.00

21.04

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.25)1.80

2 (-3.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	41.00 → 41.00	Bet365 41.00
X	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
2	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:23 +2’	41.00	12.00	1.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell (W) 0–1–5 Hearts (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Hearts (W)
14/09/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Motherwell (W)
11/05/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	0-6 HT 0-2	Hearts (W)
16/04/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell (W)
22/12/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Hearts (W)
01/09/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	6-1 HT 2-0	Motherwell (W)

Standings · Scotland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Glasgow City (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose LFC (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Partick Thistle (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell (W)	Hearts (W)
Hibernian (W)	0-7 L	0-2 L
Aberdeen (W)	2-2 D	6-0 W
Glasgow City (W)	0-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts (W) (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-7	4	1	L
17/05	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
10/05	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
26/04	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
05/04	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	4-0	14	0	W
22/03	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	5-1	1	5	W
15/03	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	4-3	7	2	W
22/02	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	0-4	0	2	L
08/02	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
25/01	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	4	1	L

Hearts (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	3-0	6-0	12	1	W
24/05	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
17/05	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
10/05	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/04	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
24/04	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
05/04	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
01/04	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
22/03	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
18/03	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	4-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell (W) vs Hearts (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hearts (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Motherwell (W) 5%, draw 11%, Hearts (W) 84%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell (W) vs Hearts (W)?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Motherwell (W) 1.01 · Hearts (W) 3.01), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell (W) vs Hearts (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.