Football · Poland II Liga · 17/10, 14:15

Prediction: Gornik Leczna vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Team pages: Gornik Leczna · Stal Stalowa Wola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Gornik Leczna2.11

Stal Stalowa Wola1.25

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Gornik Leczna Draw Stal Stalowa Wola

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Leczna 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWDWL

Stal Stalowa Wola 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLWLW

Head-to-head

Gornik Leczna 5–1 Stal Stalowa Wola (6 last)

Gornik Leczna2-0Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola0-1Gornik Leczna
Gornik Leczna3-0Stal Stalowa Wola
Gornik Leczna1-2Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola1-3Gornik Leczna
Gornik Leczna1-0Stal Stalowa Wola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Leczna 1531 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1477

	Gornik Leczna	Draw	Stal Stalowa Wola
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Leczna (rating 1531 vs 1477).
H2H favours Gornik Leczna: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Leczna	Stal Stalowa Wola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +14’	1.60	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Leczna 5–0–1 Stal Stalowa Wola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/12/24 Poland I Liga	Gornik Leczna	2-0 HT 0-0	Stal Stalowa Wola
20/07/24 Poland I Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	0-1 HT 0-0	Gornik Leczna
07/02/21 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Leczna	3-0 HT 1-0	Stal Stalowa Wola
06/06/20 Poland II Liga	Gornik Leczna	1-2 HT 1-1	Stal Stalowa Wola
31/08/19 Poland II Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	1-3 HT 1-0	Gornik Leczna
06/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Gornik Leczna	1-0 HT 0-0	Stal Stalowa Wola

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	11	8	2	1	24	12	26
2	GKS Tychy 71	11	6	5	0	17	6	23
3	Gornik Leczna	11	6	2	3	21	13	20
4	Hutnik Krakow	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	5	3	3	22	20	18
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	11	5	3	3	14	16	18
7	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
8	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	4	4	3	17	14	16
9	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	11	4	4	3	15	12	16
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	4	3	4	20	18	15
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	11	4	3	4	19	19	15
12	Avia Swidnik	11	4	2	5	14	17	14
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	11	4	1	6	19	23	13
14	Legia Warsaw II	10	4	0	6	20	17	12
15	Slask Wroclaw II	10	3	0	7	17	20	9
16	Sokol Kleczew	11	1	5	5	12	25	8
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	11	2	2	7	11	25	8
18	Resovia Rzeszow	11	0	4	7	7	20	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Leczna	Stal Stalowa Wola
GKS Tychy 71	0-3 L	1-2 L
Chojniczanka Chojnice	3-1 W	0-2 L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0-0 D	3-3 D
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	1-0 W	1-3 L
Podhale Nowy Targ	5-2 W	0-5 L
Slask Wroclaw II	0-2 L	3-2 W
Avia Swidnik	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Leczna

LLWDWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
04/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
18/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
12/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	4-1	10	4	W
05/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	4-0	10	4	W
30/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
21/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
14/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	3-0	5-2	4	3	W
09/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	8	7	L
01/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Stal Stalowa Wola

LLWLLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
04/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	1-3	2-4	2	5	L
20/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
04/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	3-3	6	7	D
29/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	1-2	9	3	L
21/08	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
16/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
08/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	1	L
31/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Leczna vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Leczna win (56%). Probabilities: Gornik Leczna 56%, draw 23%, Stal Stalowa Wola 21%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Leczna vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Gornik Leczna 2.11 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Leczna vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.