Football · Poland II Liga · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Avia Swidnik vs Znicz Pruszków

Team pages: Avia Swidnik · Znicz Pruszków

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Avia Swidnik1.42

Znicz Pruszków1.63

1X2

33% 26% 42%

Avia Swidnik Draw Znicz Pruszków

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Avia Swidnik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDWW

Znicz Pruszków 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avia Swidnik 1482 · Znicz Pruszków 1577

	Avia Swidnik	Draw	Znicz Pruszków
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Znicz Pruszków (rating 1482 vs 1577).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avia Swidnik	Znicz Pruszków
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +10’	2.55	3.60	2.25
10:07 +9’	2.75▲	3.60	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:30 +47’	2.92	3.45	2.18
11:04 +18’	2.72▼	3.36▼	2.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	25	12	29
2	GKS Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	19	7	26
3	Gornik Leczna	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
4	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	12	5	4	3	19	15	19
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	22	20	19
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	12	5	4	3	15	17	19
7	Hutnik Krakow	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	5	3	4	21	20	18
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	12	5	2	5	16	13	17
10	Avia Swidnik	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
11	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	5	1	6	21	24	16
14	Legia Warsaw II	12	4	1	7	23	21	13
15	Slask Wroclaw II	12	3	1	8	20	24	10
16	Sokol Kleczew	12	1	6	5	12	25	9
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	12	2	3	7	12	26	9
18	Resovia Rzeszow	12	0	5	7	7	20	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avia Swidnik	Znicz Pruszków
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	3-2 W
OKS Swit Skolwin	1-0 W	1-1 D
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	0-1 L	1-0 W
GKS Tychy 71	0-1 L	1-1 D
Lechia Zielona Góra	1-3 L	3-1 W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1-4 L	1-0 W
Stal Stalowa Wola	0-4 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Znicz Pruszków (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avia Swidnik

WLLLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
18/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-2	2-2	12	7	D
13/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
06/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
22/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
16/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	0-1	0-4	6	1	L
09/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-0	3-0	4	0	W

Znicz Pruszków

WLDWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
11/10	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
04/10	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-1	4-2	4	5	W
19/09	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
11/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
06/09	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	4-2	4	8	W
29/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	2-1	3-2	11	2	W
22/08	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
16/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
09/08	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	4-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avia Swidnik vs Znicz Pruszków?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Znicz Pruszków win (42%). Probabilities: Avia Swidnik 33%, draw 26%, Znicz Pruszków 42%.

How many goals are expected in Avia Swidnik vs Znicz Pruszków?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Avia Swidnik 1.42 · Znicz Pruszków 1.63), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Avia Swidnik vs Znicz Pruszków?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.