Football · Poland II Liga · 24/10, 12:45

Prediction: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gornik Leczna

Team pages: Lechia Zielona Góra · Gornik Leczna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Lechia Zielona Góra1.41

Gornik Leczna1.52

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Lechia Zielona Góra Draw Gornik Leczna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Zielona Góra 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWLWLD

Gornik Leczna 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Zielona Góra 1481 · Gornik Leczna 1524

	Lechia Zielona Góra	Draw	Gornik Leczna
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Leczna (rating 1481 vs 1524).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Zielona Góra	Gornik Leczna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.7	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +12’	2.60	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	25	12	29
2	GKS Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	19	7	26
3	Gornik Leczna	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
4	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	12	5	4	3	19	15	19
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	22	20	19
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	12	5	4	3	15	17	19
7	Hutnik Krakow	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	5	3	4	21	20	18
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	12	5	2	5	16	13	17
10	Avia Swidnik	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
11	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	5	1	6	21	24	16
14	Legia Warsaw II	12	4	1	7	23	21	13
15	Slask Wroclaw II	12	3	1	8	20	24	10
16	Sokol Kleczew	12	1	6	5	12	25	9
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	12	2	3	7	12	26	9
18	Resovia Rzeszow	12	0	5	7	7	20	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Zielona Góra	Gornik Leczna
Podhale Nowy Targ	0-0 D	5-2 W
Legia Warsaw II	0-2 L	4-1 W
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	3-1 W	1-1 D
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sokol Kleczew	6-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Leczna (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Zielona Góra

WLDWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
10/10	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
19/09	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
05/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-1	1-4	10	1	L
29/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
16/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
08/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-1	6-1	5	4	W

Gornik Leczna

LWDWWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
11/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
04/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
18/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
12/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	4-1	10	4	W
05/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	4-0	10	4	W
30/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
21/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
14/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	3-0	5-2	4	3	W
09/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gornik Leczna?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gornik Leczna win (39%). Probabilities: Lechia Zielona Góra 34%, draw 27%, Gornik Leczna 39%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gornik Leczna?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Lechia Zielona Góra 1.41 · Gornik Leczna 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Gornik Leczna?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.