Football · Poland II Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Legia Warsaw II

Team pages: Chojniczanka Chojnice · Legia Warsaw II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Chojniczanka Chojnice2.19

Legia Warsaw II1.45

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Chojniczanka Chojnice Draw Legia Warsaw II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Chojniczanka Chojnice 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWLDW

Legia Warsaw II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1541 · Legia Warsaw II 1496

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Draw	Legia Warsaw II
Our model	53%	22%	24%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chojniczanka Chojnice (rating 1541 vs 1496).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Legia Warsaw II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +7’	1.70	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	25	12	29
2	GKS Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	19	7	26
3	Gornik Leczna	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
4	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	12	5	4	3	19	15	19
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	22	20	19
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	12	5	4	3	15	17	19
7	Hutnik Krakow	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	5	3	4	21	20	18
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	12	5	2	5	16	13	17
10	Avia Swidnik	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
11	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	12	4	4	4	20	18	16
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	5	1	6	21	24	16
14	Legia Warsaw II	12	4	1	7	23	21	13
15	Slask Wroclaw II	12	3	1	8	20	24	10
16	Sokol Kleczew	12	1	6	5	12	25	9
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	12	2	3	7	12	26	9
18	Resovia Rzeszow	12	0	5	7	7	20	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Legia Warsaw II
Hutnik Krakow	2-1 W	0-2 L
Podhale Nowy Targ	2-2 D	3-0 W
Gornik Leczna	1-3 L	1-4 L
OKS Swit Skolwin	5-1 W	5-0 W
Sokol Kleczew	1-1 D	6-1 W
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chojniczanka Chojnice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
09/10	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
04/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
19/09	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	2-1	5-1	7	5	W
05/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
29/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
09/08	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L

Legia Warsaw II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
14/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
10/10	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/09	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	1-0	1-4	2	4	L
06/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
29/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
23/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-1	6-1	6	2	W
16/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
09/08	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-0	5-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Legia Warsaw II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chojniczanka Chojnice win (53%). Probabilities: Chojniczanka Chojnice 53%, draw 23%, Legia Warsaw II 24%.

How many goals are expected in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Legia Warsaw II?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Chojniczanka Chojnice 2.19 · Legia Warsaw II 1.45), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Legia Warsaw II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.