Football · Poland II Liga · 18/10, 14:30

Prediction: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Team pages: Podhale Nowy Targ · Lechia Zielona Góra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Podhale Nowy Targ2.13

Lechia Zielona Góra1.45

1X2

52% 24% 25%

Podhale Nowy Targ Draw Lechia Zielona Góra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Podhale Nowy Targ 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWWLWD

Lechia Zielona Góra 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLWLWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podhale Nowy Targ 1523 · Lechia Zielona Góra 1479

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Draw	Lechia Zielona Góra
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podhale Nowy Targ (rating 1523 vs 1479).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Lechia Zielona Góra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.82 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.73
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:37 +10’	1.75	3.60	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +3’	1.65	3.84	4.05
10:00 +18’	1.82▲	3.73▼	3.66▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	11	8	2	1	24	12	26
2	GKS Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	19	7	26
3	Gornik Leczna	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
4	Olimpia Grudziadz	12	5	4	3	15	17	19
5	Hutnik Krakow	12	5	3	4	19	16	18
6	Podhale Nowy Targ	11	5	3	3	22	20	18
7	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	5	3	4	21	20	18
8	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	11	5	2	4	16	12	17
9	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	11	4	4	3	17	14	16
10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	11	4	4	3	15	12	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	12	5	1	6	21	24	16
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	11	4	3	4	20	18	15
13	Avia Swidnik	11	4	2	5	14	17	14
14	Legia Warsaw II	12	4	1	7	23	21	13
15	Slask Wroclaw II	11	3	1	7	19	22	10
16	OKS Swit Skolwin	12	2	3	7	12	26	9
17	Sokol Kleczew	11	1	5	5	12	25	8
18	Resovia Rzeszow	11	0	4	7	7	20	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Podhale Nowy Targ	Lechia Zielona Góra
Legia Warsaw II	0-3 L	0-2 L
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	2-1 W	3-1 W
Olimpia Grudziadz	3-1 W	2-2 D
Resovia Rzeszow	1-1 D	1-0 W
Hutnik Krakow	2-5 L	1-1 D
Sokol Kleczew	0-0 D	6-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lechia Zielona Góra (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Podhale Nowy Targ

DLLDWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
19/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-0	5-0	8	3	W
05/09	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
29/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/08	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-3	2-5	4	3	L
08/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-5	4	9	L
01/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Lechia Zielona Góra

DWLDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
19/09	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
05/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-1	1-4	10	1	L
29/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
16/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
08/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-1	6-1	5	4	W
01/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podhale Nowy Targ win (52%). Probabilities: Podhale Nowy Targ 52%, draw 24%, Lechia Zielona Góra 25%.

How many goals are expected in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Podhale Nowy Targ 2.13 · Lechia Zielona Góra 1.45), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Lechia Zielona Góra?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.