Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 02/09, 17:00

Prediction: FM Klaipedos vs Vilnius Football Academy

Team pages: FM Klaipedos · Vilnius Football Academy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

FM Klaipedos1.27

Vilnius Football Academy2.4

1X2

19% 20% 62%

FM Klaipedos Draw Vilnius Football Academy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FM Klaipedos 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWLL

Vilnius Football Academy 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWDWWW

Head-to-head

FM Klaipedos 0–1 Vilnius Football Academy (1 last)

Vilnius Football Academy3-1FM Klaipedos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FM Klaipedos 1519 · Vilnius Football Academy 1585

	FM Klaipedos	Draw	Vilnius Football Academy
Our model	18%	20%	62%
Market	19%	19%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilnius Football Academy (rating 1519 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FM Klaipedos	Vilnius Football Academy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	3.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.75

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +4’	4.75	4.75	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FM Klaipedos 0–0–1 Vilnius Football Academy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Vilnius Football Academy	3-1 HT 2-0	FM Klaipedos

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	18	13	4	1	44	13	43
2	Vilnius Football Academy	19	13	4	2	65	23	43
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	19	9	5	5	40	24	32
5	FM Klaipedos	19	10	2	7	29	23	32
6	FK Sveikata	18	8	6	4	37	23	30
7	Sirijus Klaipeda	18	7	5	6	36	30	26
8	FK Panevezys II	18	7	5	6	39	36	26
9	FKS Ukmerge	18	7	3	8	26	26	24
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	19	6	3	10	33	42	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	19	5	4	10	27	27	19
12	FK Silute	19	5	4	10	24	45	19
13	Utenis Utena	19	5	4	10	22	43	19
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	19	3	2	14	24	65	11
15	DFK Dainava II	19	3	0	16	28	74	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FM Klaipedos	Vilnius Football Academy
Utenis Utena	0-1 L	6-1 W
FK Sirvena	1-4 L	1-1 D
FK Viltis Vilnius	2-0 W	9-0 W
FK Silute	1-1 D	6-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	3-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FM Klaipedos

WDWWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
21/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-4	5	3	L
16/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
05/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
01/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/07	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
05/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Vilnius Football Academy

WDWLDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	11	2	W
23/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
14/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
08/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
31/07	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
30/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-3	4	10	D
26/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
12/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	4-0	6-1	4	5	W
05/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	8	7	D
31/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	6-0	9-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FM Klaipedos vs Vilnius Football Academy?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vilnius Football Academy win (62%). Probabilities: FM Klaipedos 19%, draw 20%, Vilnius Football Academy 62%.

How many goals are expected in FM Klaipedos vs Vilnius Football Academy?

The model expects 3.67 goals (FM Klaipedos 1.27 · Vilnius Football Academy 2.4), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FM Klaipedos vs Vilnius Football Academy?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.