Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: FKS Ukmerge vs FK Viltis Vilnius

Team pages: FKS Ukmerge · FK Viltis Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

FKS Ukmerge2.77

FK Viltis Vilnius0.94

1X2

76% 14% 10%

FKS Ukmerge Draw FK Viltis Vilnius

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FKS Ukmerge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Viltis Vilnius 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

FKS Ukmerge 1–2–3 FK Viltis Vilnius (6 last)

FK Viltis Vilnius3-2FKS Ukmerge
FKS Ukmerge0-3FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius2-2FKS Ukmerge
FKS Ukmerge3-3FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius0-2FKS Ukmerge
FK Viltis Vilnius5-1FKS Ukmerge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FKS Ukmerge 1481 · FK Viltis Vilnius 1399

	FKS Ukmerge	Draw	FK Viltis Vilnius
Our model	75%	16%	9%
Market	76%	13%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FKS Ukmerge (rating 1481 vs 1399).
H2H favours FK Viltis Vilnius: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FKS Ukmerge	FK Viltis Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.7 / 3.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.1 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.3	1.1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.20

X7.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +8’	1.20	7.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FKS Ukmerge 1–2–3 FK Viltis Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	3-2 HT 1-1	FKS Ukmerge
26/10/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FKS Ukmerge	0-3 HT 0-2	FK Viltis Vilnius
15/06/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	2-2 HT 1-2	FKS Ukmerge
19/10/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FKS Ukmerge	3-3 HT 2-1	FK Viltis Vilnius
26/06/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	0-2 HT 0-1	FKS Ukmerge
11/11/23 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	5-1 HT 3-0	FKS Ukmerge

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
2	Nevezis	18	13	4	1	44	13	43
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	19	9	5	5	40	24	32
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	18	7	5	6	36	30	26
9	FKS Ukmerge	18	7	3	8	26	26	24
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
12	FK Silute	19	5	4	10	24	45	19
13	Utenis Utena	19	5	4	10	22	43	19
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	19	3	2	14	24	65	11
15	DFK Dainava II	19	3	0	16	28	74	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FKS Ukmerge	FK Viltis Vilnius
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-2 D	1-2 L
DFK Dainava II	2-1 W	1-3 L
FM Klaipedos	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Silute	1-0 W	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Banga Gargzdai II	1-0 W	0-4 L
FK Sveikata	1-2 L	0-4 L
FK Panevezys II	1-1 D	0-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: FKS Ukmerge (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FKS Ukmerge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
14/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
09/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
01/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
03/07	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
21/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
12/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	1-2	11	3	L
31/05	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D

FK Viltis Vilnius

LLLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	2	1	L
16/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
08/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
02/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	12	W
27/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-4	2	3	L
24/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	1-6	–	–	L
20/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
14/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-6	4	4	L
05/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FKS Ukmerge vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FKS Ukmerge win (76%). Probabilities: FKS Ukmerge 76%, draw 14%, FK Viltis Vilnius 10%.

How many goals are expected in FKS Ukmerge vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

The model expects 3.71 goals (FKS Ukmerge 2.77 · FK Viltis Vilnius 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FKS Ukmerge vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.