Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 11/09, 18:30

Prediction: Vilnius Football Academy vs DFK Dainava II

Team pages: Vilnius Football Academy · DFK Dainava II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.78Total

Vilnius Football Academy3.39

DFK Dainava II1.39

1X2

82% 11% 7%

Vilnius Football Academy Draw DFK Dainava II

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Vilnius Football Academy 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDWWWW

DFK Dainava II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Vilnius Football Academy 1–0 DFK Dainava II (1 last)

DFK Dainava II2-4Vilnius Football Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilnius Football Academy 1588 · DFK Dainava II 1412

	Vilnius Football Academy	Draw	DFK Dainava II
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	89%	9%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 4.78 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilnius Football Academy (rating 1588 vs 1412).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilnius Football Academy	DFK Dainava II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.4	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.05

X11.00

234.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4)1.85

2 (+4)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 51.90

Under 51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.05▲	Bet365 1.05
X	9.50 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00
2	21.00 → 34.00▲	Bet365 34.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +1’	1.04	9.50	21.00
13:55 +35’	1.05▲	11.00▲	34.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilnius Football Academy 1–0–0 DFK Dainava II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	DFK Dainava II	2-4 HT 2-2	Vilnius Football Academy

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	19	14	4	1	46	14	46
2	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	20	10	5	5	41	24	35
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	FKS Ukmerge	19	8	3	8	31	27	27
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	19	7	5	7	36	31	26
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
12	FK Silute	20	5	4	11	25	47	19
13	Utenis Utena	20	5	4	11	24	47	19
14	DFK Dainava II	20	4	0	16	32	76	12
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	20	3	2	15	25	70	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilnius Football Academy	DFK Dainava II
FM Klaipedos	2-0 W	0-3 L
FK Silute	6-0 W	1-2 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	4-2 W	0-4 L
Utenis Utena	6-1 W	4-2 W
FK Sirvena	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilnius Football Academy

DWLDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
28/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	11	2	W
23/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
14/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
08/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
31/07	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
30/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-3	4	10	D
26/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
12/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	4-0	6-1	4	5	W
05/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	8	7	D

DFK Dainava II

LLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	4-2	2	4	W
27/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-5	–	–	L
23/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
16/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-6	5	4	L
09/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
01/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-5	4	2	L
04/07	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-4	2	4	L
17/06	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
13/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
07/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilnius Football Academy vs DFK Dainava II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilnius Football Academy win (82%). Probabilities: Vilnius Football Academy 82%, draw 11%, DFK Dainava II 7%.

How many goals are expected in Vilnius Football Academy vs DFK Dainava II?

The model expects 4.78 goals (Vilnius Football Academy 3.39 · DFK Dainava II 1.39), with a 54% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilnius Football Academy vs DFK Dainava II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.