Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 10/09, 17:00

Prediction: Utenis Utena vs Sirijus Klaipeda

Team pages: Utenis Utena · Sirijus Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Utenis Utena1.45

Sirijus Klaipeda2.11

1X2

26% 23% 52%

Utenis Utena Draw Sirijus Klaipeda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Utenis Utena 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLWLWL

Sirijus Klaipeda 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDLWL

Head-to-head

Utenis Utena 0–2 Sirijus Klaipeda (2 last)

Sirijus Klaipeda1-0Utenis Utena
Sirijus Klaipeda4-1Utenis Utena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Utenis Utena 1429 · Sirijus Klaipeda 1517

	Utenis Utena	Draw	Sirijus Klaipeda
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirijus Klaipeda (rating 1429 vs 1517).
H2H favours Sirijus Klaipeda: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Utenis Utena	Sirijus Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.8	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:55 +3’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Utenis Utena 0–0–2 Sirijus Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Sirijus Klaipeda	1-0 HT 0-0	Utenis Utena
11/04/26 Lithuania Cup	Sirijus Klaipeda	4-1 HT 2-1	Utenis Utena

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	19	14	4	1	46	14	46
2	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	20	10	5	5	41	24	35
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	FKS Ukmerge	19	8	3	8	31	27	27
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	19	7	5	7	36	31	26
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
12	FK Silute	20	5	4	11	25	47	19
13	Utenis Utena	20	5	4	11	24	47	19
14	DFK Dainava II	20	4	0	16	32	76	12
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	20	3	2	15	25	70	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Utenis Utena	Sirijus Klaipeda
DFK Dainava II	2-4 L	5-2 W
FM Klaipedos	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Silute	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	4-2 W	1-3 L
Banga Gargzdai II	0-4 L	2-2 D
FK Sirvena	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sirijus Klaipeda (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Utenis Utena

LLLDDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-4	2	4	L
26/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
21/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	4-2	3	7	W
05/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
02/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
22/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
12/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-4	1-6	4	5	L
30/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	7	L

Sirijus Klaipeda

DLWLWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	10	L
14/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
01/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	5-2	11	2	W
04/07	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-1	4-1	1	4	W
27/06	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
14/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
05/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Utenis Utena vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sirijus Klaipeda win (52%). Probabilities: Utenis Utena 26%, draw 23%, Sirijus Klaipeda 52%.

How many goals are expected in Utenis Utena vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Utenis Utena 1.45 · Sirijus Klaipeda 2.11), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Utenis Utena vs Sirijus Klaipeda?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.