Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 11/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nevezis vs FM Klaipedos

Team pages: Nevezis · FM Klaipedos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Nevezis2.17

FM Klaipedos0.8

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Nevezis Draw FM Klaipedos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nevezis 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDWWW

FM Klaipedos 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Nevezis 1–0 FM Klaipedos (1 last)

FM Klaipedos0-2Nevezis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nevezis 1595 · FM Klaipedos 1491

	Nevezis	Draw	FM Klaipedos
Our model	68%	21%	12%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nevezis (rating 1595 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nevezis	FM Klaipedos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	1.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:28 +1’	1.30	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nevezis 1–0–0 FM Klaipedos

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	0-2 HT 0-2	Nevezis

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	19	14	4	1	46	14	46
2	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	20	10	5	5	41	24	35
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	FKS Ukmerge	19	8	3	8	31	27	27
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	19	7	5	7	36	31	26
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
12	FK Silute	20	5	4	11	25	47	19
13	Utenis Utena	20	5	4	11	24	47	19
14	DFK Dainava II	20	4	0	16	32	76	12
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	20	3	2	15	25	70	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nevezis	FM Klaipedos
FK Silute	2-1 W	1-1 D
Vilnius Football Academy	2-1 W	0-2 L
Utenis Utena	3-0 W	0-1 L
FK Sirvena	2-3 L	1-4 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	5-0 W	2-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nevezis (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nevezis

DWLWWWDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	8	5	W
24/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
14/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
07/08	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
26/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
19/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
12/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
05/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
30/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	11	4	D

FM Klaipedos

DWWWLWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
26/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
21/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-4	5	3	L
16/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
05/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
01/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/07	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
05/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nevezis vs FM Klaipedos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nevezis win (69%). Probabilities: Nevezis 69%, draw 19%, FM Klaipedos 12%.

How many goals are expected in Nevezis vs FM Klaipedos?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Nevezis 2.17 · FM Klaipedos 0.8), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nevezis vs FM Klaipedos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.