Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 12/09, 12:30

Prediction: FK Viltis Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole II

Team pages: FK Viltis Vilnius · Suduva Marijampole II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

FK Viltis Vilnius1.12

Suduva Marijampole II3.12

1X2

8% 11% 81%

FK Viltis Vilnius Draw Suduva Marijampole II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Viltis Vilnius 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Suduva Marijampole II 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Viltis Vilnius 2–4 Suduva Marijampole II (6 last)

Suduva Marijampole II4-1FK Viltis Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole II4-1FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius6-2Suduva Marijampole II
Suduva Marijampole II1-2FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius2-3Suduva Marijampole II
FK Viltis Vilnius0-2Suduva Marijampole II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Viltis Vilnius 1371 · Suduva Marijampole II 1560

	FK Viltis Vilnius	Draw	Suduva Marijampole II
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	6%	9%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole II (rating 1371 vs 1560).
H2H favours Suduva Marijampole II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Viltis Vilnius	Suduva Marijampole II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.6	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/10/90%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.2	3.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

115.00

X10.00

21.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.85

2 (-3)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.95

Under 4.751.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	1.10 → 1.10	Bet365 1.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +17’	15.00	10.00	1.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Viltis Vilnius 2–0–4 Suduva Marijampole II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Suduva Marijampole II	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Viltis Vilnius
04/08/25 Lithuania II Lyga	Suduva Marijampole II	4-1 HT 1-1	FK Viltis Vilnius
03/05/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	6-2 HT 2-0	Suduva Marijampole II
03/08/24 Lithuania II Lyga	Suduva Marijampole II	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Viltis Vilnius
14/04/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	2-3 HT 1-3	Suduva Marijampole II
15/10/23 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	0-2 HT 0-2	Suduva Marijampole II

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	19	14	4	1	46	14	46
2	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	20	10	5	5	41	24	35
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	FKS Ukmerge	19	8	3	8	31	27	27
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	20	7	5	8	36	32	26
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	Utenis Utena	21	6	4	11	25	47	22
12	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
13	FK Silute	20	5	4	11	25	47	19
14	DFK Dainava II	20	4	0	16	32	76	12
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	20	3	2	15	25	70	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Viltis Vilnius	Suduva Marijampole II
FKS Ukmerge	1-5 L	2-0 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	1-2 L	2-1 W
DFK Dainava II	1-3 L	6-3 W
FM Klaipedos	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Silute	2-3 L	6-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	2-1 W	3-2 W
Banga Gargzdai II	0-4 L	1-2 L
FK Sveikata	0-4 L	0-1 L
FK Panevezys II	0-6 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 8 L	6 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole II (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Viltis Vilnius

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-5	8	4	L
30/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	2	1	L
16/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
08/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
02/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	12	W
27/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-4	2	3	L
24/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	1-6	–	–	L
20/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
14/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-6	4	4	L

Suduva Marijampole II

WLLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
22/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
16/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	6-3	3	4	W
05/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
01/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	10	2	W
04/07	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
28/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	3-2	2	1	W
22/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
10/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Viltis Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Suduva Marijampole II win (81%). Probabilities: FK Viltis Vilnius 8%, draw 11%, Suduva Marijampole II 81%.

How many goals are expected in FK Viltis Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole II?

The model expects 4.24 goals (FK Viltis Vilnius 1.12 · Suduva Marijampole II 3.12), with a 57% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Viltis Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.