Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Institute vs Ballinamallard Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Institute1.65
Ballinamallard Utd0.87
1X2
Institute
Draw
Ballinamallard Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Institute
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Ballinamallard Utd
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Institute
3–2–1
Ballinamallard Utd
(6 last)
- Institute3-0Ballinamallard Utd
- Ballinamallard Utd0-1Institute
- Ballinamallard Utd0-3Institute
- Ballinamallard Utd2-2Institute
- Institute0-0Ballinamallard Utd
- Ballinamallard Utd2-0Institute
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Institute 1609 · Ballinamallard Utd 1400
| Institute | Draw | Ballinamallard Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Institute (rating 1609 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Institute: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Institute | Ballinamallard Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0 | 0 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 100/0/0% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 2 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 0.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 3–2–1 Ballinamallard Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 3-0 | Ballinamallard Utd |
| 31/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Ballinamallard Utd | 0-1 | Institute |
| 13/01/26 Northern Ireland Cup | Ballinamallard Utd | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Institute |
| 06/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ballinamallard Utd | 2-2 | Institute |
| 16/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ballinamallard Utd |
| 05/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ballinamallard Utd | 2-0 | Institute |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | HW Welders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ards FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Loughgall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Institute | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Newry City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dundela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Armagh City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Queens University | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ballinamallard Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Strabane Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Glenavon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Rathfriland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Annagh United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Warrenpoint Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Institute | Ballinamallard Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Ards FC | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Warrenpoint Town | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Dundela | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Institute (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Institute
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/03 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/03 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 07/03 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/03 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Ballinamallard Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Newry City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Limavady United UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/03 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Institute vs Ballinamallard Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Institute win (55%). Probabilities: Institute 55%, draw 25%, Ballinamallard Utd 19%.
How many goals are expected in Institute vs Ballinamallard Utd?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Institute 1.65 · Ballinamallard Utd 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Institute vs Ballinamallard Utd?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.