Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 21/08, 20:45
Prediction: Newry City vs Warrenpoint Town
Team pages: Warrenpoint Town
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Newry City1.33
Warrenpoint Town1.11
1X2
Newry City
Draw
Warrenpoint Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newry City
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Warrenpoint Town
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newry City
2–1–3
Warrenpoint Town
(6 last)
- Newry City1-2Warrenpoint Town
- Newry City1-0Warrenpoint Town
- Newry City0-2Warrenpoint Town
- Warrenpoint Town1-2Newry City
- Newry City1-1Warrenpoint Town
- Newry City1-2Warrenpoint Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newry City 1514 · Warrenpoint Town 1448
| Newry City | Draw | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newry City (rating 1514 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Warrenpoint Town: 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newry City | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/50/17% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newry City 2–1–3 Warrenpoint Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/24 Club Friendly List | Newry City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 29/07/23 Club Friendly List | Newry City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 26/07/22 Club Friendly List | Newry City | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 08/01/22 Northern Ireland Cup | Warrenpoint Town | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Newry City |
| 14/09/21 Northern Ireland League Cup | Newry City | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 25/08/20 Club Friendly List | Newry City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Warrenpoint Town |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 1 | Newington FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | HW Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Queens University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Banbridge Town Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 23/04 | Dergview FC Northern Ireland Premier Intermediate League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/02 | Portstewart Northern Ireland Premier Intermediate League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/01 | Ballyclare Comrades Northern Ireland Premier Intermediate League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/12 | Linfield Northern Ireland League Cup |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 21/11 | Drumaness Mills Northern Ireland Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 17 | 5 | L |
Warrenpoint Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/07 | Cliftonville UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newry City vs Warrenpoint Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newry City win (41%). Probabilities: Newry City 41%, draw 28%, Warrenpoint Town 31%.
How many goals are expected in Newry City vs Warrenpoint Town?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Newry City 1.33 · Warrenpoint Town 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Newry City vs Warrenpoint Town?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.