Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Loughgall vs Newington FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Loughgall1.73
Newington FC1.51
1X2
Loughgall
Draw
Newington FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Loughgall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Newington FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loughgall
4–1–1
Newington FC
(6 last)
- Newington FC2-1Loughgall
- Loughgall2-1Newington FC
- Loughgall2-2Newington FC
- Newington FC2-3Loughgall
- Loughgall1-0Newington FC
- Newington FC0-2Loughgall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loughgall 1504 · Newington FC 1512
| Loughgall | Draw | Newington FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Loughgall: 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loughgall | Newington FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.7 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughgall 4–1–1 Newington FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Newington FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Loughgall |
| 24/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 2-1 | Newington FC |
| 25/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 2-2 | Newington FC |
| 16/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Newington FC | 2-3 | Loughgall |
| 25/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-0 | Newington FC |
| 19/11/22 Northern Ireland Championship | Newington FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Loughgall |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | HW Welders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ards FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Loughgall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Institute | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Newry City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dundela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Armagh City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Queens University | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Ballinamallard Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Strabane Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Glenavon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Rathfriland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Annagh United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Warrenpoint Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loughgall | Newington FC |
|---|---|---|
| Queens University | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| HW Welders | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Annagh United | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Limavady United | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loughgall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Letterkenny Rovers Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Dungannon Swifts UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Ballyclare Comrades UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/03 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Newington FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Ballymacash Rangers Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/03 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/03 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loughgall vs Newington FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughgall win (42%). Probabilities: Loughgall 42%, draw 26%, Newington FC 32%.
How many goals are expected in Loughgall vs Newington FC?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Loughgall 1.73 · Newington FC 1.51), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Loughgall vs Newington FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.