Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Institute vs Loughgall
Team pages: Institute · Loughgall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Institute1.09
Loughgall1.64
1X2
Institute
Draw
Loughgall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Institute
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Loughgall
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Institute
2–4
Loughgall
(6 last)
- Loughgall1-3Institute
- Institute2-0Loughgall
- Loughgall2-1Institute
- Loughgall2-0Institute
- Institute2-3Loughgall
- Loughgall5-1Institute
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Institute 1559 · Loughgall 1494
| Institute | Draw | Loughgall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Institute (rating 1559 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Loughgall: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Institute | Loughgall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/100/0% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 1 | 2.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 2–0–4 Loughgall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-3 | Institute |
| 03/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Institute | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Loughgall |
| 07/02/26 Northern Ireland Cup | Loughgall | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Institute |
| 08/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 2-0 | Institute |
| 14/01/25 Northern Ireland Cup | Institute | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Loughgall |
| 11/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 5-1 | Institute |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Ards FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Loughgall | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Queens University | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HW Welders | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Glenavon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Strabane Athletic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Institute | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Warrenpoint Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Newry City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Dundela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Moyola Park | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Institute
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/03 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/03 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 07/03 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Loughgall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Letterkenny Rovers Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Dungannon Swifts UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Ballyclare Comrades UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Institute vs Loughgall?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Loughgall win (50%). Probabilities: Institute 25%, draw 26%, Loughgall 50%.
How many goals are expected in Institute vs Loughgall?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Institute 1.09 · Loughgall 1.64), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Institute vs Loughgall?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.