Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Ards FC vs Queens University

Team pages: Ards FC · Queens University

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Ards FC1.69

Queens University1.42

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Ards FC Draw Queens University

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ards FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDWL

Queens University 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Ards FC 2–1–3 Queens University (6 last)

Queens University2-2Ards FC
Queens University1-0Ards FC
Ards FC2-3Queens University
Ards FC4-2Queens University
Queens University2-3Ards FC
Queens University2-1Ards FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ards FC 1497 · Queens University 1578

	Ards FC	Draw	Queens University
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Queens University (rating 1497 vs 1578).
H2H favours Queens University: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ards FC	Queens University
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +48’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 2–1–3 Queens University

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	2-2	Ards FC
18/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	1-0	Ards FC
16/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Queens University
07/09/22 Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield	Ards FC	4-2 HT 0-1	Queens University
30/04/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	2-3	Ards FC
29/01/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Queens University	2-1 HT 1-0	Ards FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ards FC	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
1	Newington FC	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
3	Glenavon	3	2	0	1	9	5	6
4	HW Welders	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
5	Warrenpoint Town	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
6	Newry City	4	2	0	2	4	8	6
7	Loughgall	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
8	Moyola Park	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Queens University	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Institute	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
11	Annagh United	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
12	Dundela	3	0	3	0	6	6	3
13	Strabane Athletic	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
14	Ballinamallard Utd	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
15	Armagh City	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
16	Rathfriland Rangers	3	0	0	3	4	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ards FC	Queens University
Loughgall	1-2 L	0-0 D
Institute	1-3 L	4-1 W
Armagh City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Queens University (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ards FC

WWLWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
15/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	8	4	D
08/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/04	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
10/04	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
04/04	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
28/03	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
21/03	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	6	5	W

Queens University

WWLWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
11/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	1	W
08/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/04	Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/04	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-0	–	–	W
04/04	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/03	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-2	–	–	W
21/03	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	8-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Queens University?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (43%). Probabilities: Ards FC 43%, draw 26%, Queens University 31%.

How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Queens University?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Ards FC 1.69 · Queens University 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Queens University?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.