Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Ards FC vs Loughgall
Team pages: Ards FC · Loughgall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Ards FC1.28
Loughgall1.22
1X2
Ards FC
Draw
Loughgall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ards FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Loughgall
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ards FC
2–2–2
Loughgall
(6 last)
- Loughgall0-1Ards FC
- Ards FC1-1Loughgall
- Loughgall1-1Ards FC
- Ards FC2-0Loughgall
- Loughgall5-0Ards FC
- Ards FC0-3Loughgall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ards FC 1531 · Loughgall 1498
| Ards FC | Draw | Loughgall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ards FC | Loughgall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.8 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ards FC 2–2–2 Loughgall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ards FC |
| 06/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Loughgall |
| 27/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ards FC |
| 01/03/25 Northern Ireland Cup | Ards FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Loughgall |
| 08/04/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Ards FC |
| 18/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Ards FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Loughgall |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 1 | Newington FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | HW Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Queens University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ards FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Carrick Rangers UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/07 | Bangor FC UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Loughgall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Letterkenny Rovers Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Dungannon Swifts UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Ballyclare Comrades UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ards FC vs Loughgall?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ards FC win (37%). Probabilities: Ards FC 37%, draw 28%, Loughgall 34%.
How many goals are expected in Ards FC vs Loughgall?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Ards FC 1.28 · Loughgall 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ards FC vs Loughgall?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.