Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 28/08, 20:45
Prediction: HW Welders vs Dundela
Team pages: HW Welders · Dundela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.61Total
HW Welders2.74
Dundela0.87
1X2
HW Welders
Draw
Dundela
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
HW Welders
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Dundela
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HW Welders
5–1–0
Dundela
(6 last)
- HW Welders3-1Dundela
- HW Welders4-0Dundela
- HW Welders6-0Dundela
- Dundela3-3HW Welders
- HW Welders2-1Dundela
- Dundela1-2HW Welders
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HW Welders 1501 · Dundela 1448
| HW Welders | Draw | Dundela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HW Welders (rating 1501 vs 1448).
- H2H favours HW Welders: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HW Welders | Dundela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 75/25/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.8 | 2.8 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HW Welders 5–1–0 Dundela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship | HW Welders | 3-1 | Dundela |
| 27/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship | HW Welders | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Dundela |
| 07/10/25 Northern Ireland League Cup | HW Welders | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Dundela |
| 26/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Dundela | 3-3 HT 2-1 | HW Welders |
| 12/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship | HW Welders | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Dundela |
| 15/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Dundela | 1-2 | HW Welders |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 1 | Newington FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | HW Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Warrenpoint Town | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Newry City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Queens University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Ballinamallard Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HW Welders | Dundela |
|---|---|---|
| Armagh City | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Warrenpoint Town | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Annagh United | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: HW Welders (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HW Welders
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/04 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
Dundela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/08 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HW Welders vs Dundela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HW Welders win (76%). Probabilities: HW Welders 76%, draw 15%, Dundela 9%.
How many goals are expected in HW Welders vs Dundela?
The model expects 3.61 goals (HW Welders 2.74 · Dundela 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in HW Welders vs Dundela?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.