Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 28/08, 20:45
Prediction: Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town
Team pages: Loughgall · Warrenpoint Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Loughgall1.46
Warrenpoint Town0.82
1X2
Loughgall
Draw
Warrenpoint Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Loughgall
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Warrenpoint Town
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loughgall
2–1–3
Warrenpoint Town
(6 last)
- Loughgall1-0Warrenpoint Town
- Warrenpoint Town1-0Loughgall
- Loughgall1-1Warrenpoint Town
- Loughgall1-2Warrenpoint Town
- Warrenpoint Town1-3Loughgall
- Warrenpoint Town2-0Loughgall
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loughgall 1515 · Warrenpoint Town 1461
| Loughgall | Draw | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loughgall (rating 1515 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Warrenpoint Town: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loughgall | Warrenpoint Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/75/25% | 33/0/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3 | 0.7 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 1.3 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughgall 2–1–3 Warrenpoint Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-0 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 20/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Warrenpoint Town | 1-0 | Loughgall |
| 11/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-1 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 22/04/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-2 | Warrenpoint Town |
| 14/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Warrenpoint Town | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Loughgall |
| 22/10/22 Northern Ireland Championship | Warrenpoint Town | 2-0 | Loughgall |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 1 | Newington FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | HW Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Warrenpoint Town | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Newry City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Queens University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Ballinamallard Utd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loughgall | Warrenpoint Town |
|---|---|---|
| Ards FC | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Institute | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| HW Welders | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Loughgall (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loughgall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/03 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Warrenpoint Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Newry City Northern Ireland Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/03 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughgall win (52%). Probabilities: Loughgall 52%, draw 27%, Warrenpoint Town 21%.
How many goals are expected in Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Loughgall 1.46 · Warrenpoint Town 0.82), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.