Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: Loughgall vs Ballinamallard Utd
Team pages: Loughgall · Ballinamallard Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Loughgall1.69
Ballinamallard Utd0.81
1X2
Loughgall
Draw
Ballinamallard Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Loughgall
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Ballinamallard Utd
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loughgall
5–1–0
Ballinamallard Utd
(6 last)
- Loughgall1-0Ballinamallard Utd
- Ballinamallard Utd0-1Loughgall
- Loughgall2-1Ballinamallard Utd
- Ballinamallard Utd0-2Loughgall
- Loughgall1-1Ballinamallard Utd
- Loughgall3-0Ballinamallard Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loughgall 1536 · Ballinamallard Utd 1415
| Loughgall | Draw | Ballinamallard Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loughgall (rating 1536 vs 1415).
- H2H favours Loughgall: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loughgall | Ballinamallard Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 0/100/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 1 | 5 / 1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loughgall 5–1–0 Ballinamallard Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-0 | Ballinamallard Utd |
| 17/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Ballinamallard Utd | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Loughgall |
| 29/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 2-1 | Ballinamallard Utd |
| 28/01/23 Northern Ireland Championship | Ballinamallard Utd | 0-2 | Loughgall |
| 03/12/22 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ballinamallard Utd |
| 15/10/22 Northern Ireland Championship | Loughgall | 3-0 | Ballinamallard Utd |
Standings · Northern Ireland Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | HW Welders | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Glenavon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Queens University | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Annagh United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Newry City | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Ards FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Moyola Park | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Ballinamallard Utd | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Institute | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 13 | Dundela | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 16 | Rathfriland Rangers | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Loughgall | Ballinamallard Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Warrenpoint Town | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Ards FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Institute | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Newington FC | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Annagh United | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Loughgall (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loughgall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Queens University Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Ballinamallard Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Newry City Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Dundela Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Institute Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/03 | Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loughgall vs Ballinamallard Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Loughgall win (58%). Probabilities: Loughgall 58%, draw 25%, Ballinamallard Utd 17%.
How many goals are expected in Loughgall vs Ballinamallard Utd?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Loughgall 1.69 · Ballinamallard Utd 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Loughgall vs Ballinamallard Utd?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.