Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Armagh City vs Dundela

Team pages: Armagh City · Dundela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Armagh City1.34

Dundela1.79

1X2

28% 25% 47%

Armagh City Draw Dundela

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Armagh City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDLDLD

Dundela 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDDLLWDD

Head-to-head

Armagh City 2–1–3 Dundela (6 last)

Dundela0-0Armagh City
Armagh City0-3Dundela
Dundela1-3Armagh City
Armagh City3-0Dundela
Dundela4-2Armagh City
Armagh City3-4Dundela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Armagh City 1443 · Dundela 1471

	Armagh City	Draw	Dundela
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dundela: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Armagh City	Dundela
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.7	3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +12’	3.20	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Armagh City 2–1–3 Dundela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	0-0	Armagh City
31/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	0-3	Dundela
06/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	1-3	Armagh City
04/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	3-0	Dundela
08/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	4-2	Armagh City
14/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Armagh City	3-4	Dundela

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	8	5	2	1	20	11	17
2	Annagh United	8	5	2	1	18	12	17
3	Queens University	8	5	1	2	18	6	16
4	HW Welders	8	5	0	3	15	10	15
5	Glenavon	8	4	2	2	18	12	14
6	Ballinamallard Utd	8	4	1	3	15	11	13
7	Institute	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Newry City	8	3	3	2	12	14	12
9	Ards FC	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
10	Warrenpoint Town	8	3	1	4	15	14	10
11	Loughgall	8	2	4	2	11	14	10
12	Dundela	8	1	5	2	16	18	8
13	Moyola Park	8	2	2	4	9	17	8
14	Strabane Athletic	8	1	2	5	9	19	5
15	Armagh City	8	0	4	4	8	14	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	8	1	0	7	6	19	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Armagh City	Dundela
Moyola Park	0-1 L	2-2 D
Glenavon	2-2 D	3-2 W
HW Welders	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dundela (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Armagh City

DLDLLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-5	–	–	L
04/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
22/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
18/04	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D

Dundela

DDDDDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
28/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	5	6	D
11/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
08/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-2	6	6	D
25/04	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/04	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Armagh City vs Dundela?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dundela win (47%). Probabilities: Armagh City 28%, draw 25%, Dundela 47%.

How many goals are expected in Armagh City vs Dundela?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Armagh City 1.34 · Dundela 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Armagh City vs Dundela?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.