Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Annagh United vs Institute

Team pages: Annagh United · Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Annagh United1.82

Institute1.37

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Annagh United Draw Institute

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Annagh United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWWWD

Institute 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLLWWW

Head-to-head

Annagh United 4–1–1 Institute (6 last)

Annagh United3-1Institute
Institute1-0Annagh United
Annagh United2-0Institute
Institute2-6Annagh United
Institute0-0Annagh United
Annagh United2-1Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Annagh United 1528 · Institute 1524

	Annagh United	Draw	Institute
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Annagh United: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Annagh United	Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/29/57%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.6 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +21’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Annagh United 4–1–1 Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	3-1	Institute
15/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	1-0 HT 1-0	Annagh United
27/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	2-0	Institute
22/03/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	2-6	Annagh United
02/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	0-0 HT 0-0	Annagh United
31/08/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	2-1	Institute

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	8	5	2	1	20	11	17
2	Annagh United	8	5	2	1	18	12	17
3	Queens University	8	5	1	2	18	6	16
4	HW Welders	8	5	0	3	15	10	15
5	Glenavon	8	4	2	2	18	12	14
6	Ballinamallard Utd	8	4	1	3	15	11	13
7	Institute	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Newry City	8	3	3	2	12	14	12
9	Ards FC	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
10	Warrenpoint Town	8	3	1	4	15	14	10
11	Loughgall	8	2	4	2	11	14	10
12	Dundela	8	1	5	2	16	18	8
13	Moyola Park	8	2	2	4	9	17	8
14	Strabane Athletic	8	1	2	5	9	19	5
15	Armagh City	8	0	4	4	8	14	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	8	1	0	7	6	19	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Annagh United	Institute
Newry City	1-1 D	1-3 L
Ards FC	2-1 W	3-1 W
Ballinamallard Utd	3-1 W	1-2 L
Rathfriland Rangers	4-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Annagh United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Annagh United

LLLWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	3-1	6	7	W
04/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
29/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
11/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-2	–	–	W
08/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
24/04	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
18/04	Limavady United Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-2	2	2	L

Institute

WWWLDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
07/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/04	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Annagh United vs Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Annagh United win (47%). Probabilities: Annagh United 47%, draw 25%, Institute 28%.

How many goals are expected in Annagh United vs Institute?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Annagh United 1.82 · Institute 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Annagh United vs Institute?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.