Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Newington FC vs Ballinamallard Utd

Team pages: Newington FC · Ballinamallard Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Newington FC2.13

Ballinamallard Utd1.35

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Newington FC Draw Ballinamallard Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Newington FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWDL

Ballinamallard Utd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Newington FC 4–1–1 Ballinamallard Utd (6 last)

Newington FC4-0Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd3-3Newington FC
Newington FC4-1Ballinamallard Utd
Newington FC2-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd3-2Newington FC
Newington FC1-0Ballinamallard Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newington FC 1561 · Ballinamallard Utd 1494

	Newington FC	Draw	Ballinamallard Utd
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newington FC (rating 1561 vs 1494).
H2H favours Newington FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newington FC	Ballinamallard Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +4’	1.65	3.80	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newington FC 4–1–1 Ballinamallard Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	4-0	Ballinamallard Utd
21/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	3-3	Newington FC
05/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	4-1	Ballinamallard Utd
12/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Ballinamallard Utd
18/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	3-2	Newington FC
23/11/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	1-0	Ballinamallard Utd

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	8	5	2	1	20	11	17
2	Annagh United	8	5	2	1	18	12	17
3	Queens University	8	5	1	2	18	6	16
4	HW Welders	8	5	0	3	15	10	15
5	Glenavon	8	4	2	2	18	12	14
6	Ballinamallard Utd	8	4	1	3	15	11	13
7	Institute	8	4	1	3	13	12	13
8	Newry City	8	3	3	2	12	14	12
9	Ards FC	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
10	Warrenpoint Town	8	3	1	4	15	14	10
11	Loughgall	8	2	4	2	11	14	10
12	Dundela	8	1	5	2	16	18	8
13	Moyola Park	8	2	2	4	9	17	8
14	Strabane Athletic	8	1	2	5	9	19	5
15	Armagh City	8	0	4	4	8	14	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	8	1	0	7	6	19	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newington FC	Ballinamallard Utd
Glenavon	0-1 L	1-1 D
Dundela	5-5 D	2-1 W
Warrenpoint Town	1-0 W	0-1 L
Loughgall	2-2 D	6-1 W
Annagh United	4-1 W	1-3 L
HW Welders	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ballinamallard Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newington FC

LWWDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
15/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	10	3	W
11/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/04	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/04	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-4	–	–	L

Ballinamallard Utd

LDLWLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
08/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/04	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newington FC vs Ballinamallard Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newington FC win (54%). Probabilities: Newington FC 54%, draw 23%, Ballinamallard Utd 23%.

How many goals are expected in Newington FC vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Newington FC 2.13 · Ballinamallard Utd 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newington FC vs Ballinamallard Utd?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.