Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Institute vs Newington FC

Team pages: Institute · Newington FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Institute1.7

Newington FC2.05

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Institute Draw Newington FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Institute 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWWWL

Newington FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Institute 1–2–3 Newington FC (6 last)

Institute3-3Newington FC
Newington FC4-1Institute
Institute0-1Newington FC
Institute3-3Newington FC
Newington FC2-0Institute
Newington FC0-1Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Institute 1501 · Newington FC 1576

	Institute	Draw	Newington FC
Our model	32%	23%	46%
Market	31%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newington FC (rating 1501 vs 1576).
H2H favours Newington FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Institute	Newington FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	3.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +21’	2.90	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 1–2–3 Newington FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/12/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	3-3 HT 0-1	Newington FC
29/11/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	4-1	Institute
20/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	0-1 HT 0-0	Newington FC
01/04/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	3-3 HT 2-2	Newington FC
30/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Institute
26/10/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Newington FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Institute

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	9	2	2	5	10	19	8
15	Armagh City	9	0	4	5	8	16	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Institute	Newington FC
Annagh United	0-5 L	4-1 W
Warrenpoint Town	2-0 W	1-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	2-0 W	4-0 W
Queens University	1-4 L	2-1 W
Loughgall	0-0 D	2-2 D
Ballinamallard Utd	1-2 L	4-0 W
Strabane Athletic	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newington FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Institute

WWLDLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
07/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W

Newington FC

WWDWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
19/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
15/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-1	10	3	W
11/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/04	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Institute vs Newington FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newington FC win (45%). Probabilities: Institute 31%, draw 24%, Newington FC 45%.

How many goals are expected in Institute vs Newington FC?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Institute 1.7 · Newington FC 2.05), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Institute vs Newington FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.