Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ballinamallard Utd vs Ards FC

Team pages: Ballinamallard Utd · Ards FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Ballinamallard Utd1.38

Ards FC1.46

1X2

35% 27% 39%

Ballinamallard Utd Draw Ards FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ballinamallard Utd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWDWL

Ards FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Ballinamallard Utd 2–1–3 Ards FC (6 last)

Ballinamallard Utd0-2Ards FC
Ards FC2-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd1-0Ards FC
Ards FC3-1Ballinamallard Utd
Ballinamallard Utd2-2Ards FC
Ards FC0-1Ballinamallard Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ballinamallard Utd 1489 · Ards FC 1511

	Ballinamallard Utd	Draw	Ards FC
Our model	34%	27%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ards FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ballinamallard Utd	Ards FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	17/67/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.8 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.7	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +8’	2.55	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ballinamallard Utd 2–1–3 Ards FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	0-2	Ards FC
28/02/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	2-1	Ballinamallard Utd
31/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	1-0	Ards FC
09/08/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	3-1	Ballinamallard Utd
25/01/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Ballinamallard Utd	2-2	Ards FC
07/12/24 Northern Ireland Championship	Ards FC	0-1	Ballinamallard Utd

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	9	2	2	5	10	19	8
15	Armagh City	9	0	4	5	8	16	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ballinamallard Utd	Ards FC
Glenavon	1-1 D	3-1 W
Loughgall	6-1 W	1-2 L
Annagh United	1-3 L	1-2 L
Dundela	2-1 W	2-2 D
Moyola Park	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ards FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ballinamallard Utd

DLWLWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	6-1	5	3	W
29/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
08/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-2	–	–	D

Ards FC

WWDWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
19/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
04/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-2	10	7	L
28/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
22/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
15/08	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-2	8	4	D
08/08	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/04	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ballinamallard Utd vs Ards FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ards FC win (39%). Probabilities: Ballinamallard Utd 35%, draw 27%, Ards FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Ballinamallard Utd vs Ards FC?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Ballinamallard Utd 1.38 · Ards FC 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ballinamallard Utd vs Ards FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.