Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United

Team pages: Warrenpoint Town · Annagh United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Warrenpoint Town1.33

Annagh United1.69

1X2

29% 26% 45%

Warrenpoint Town Draw Annagh United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrenpoint Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDLWLW

Annagh United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Warrenpoint Town 2–1–3 Annagh United (6 last)

Warrenpoint Town0-1Annagh United
Annagh United1-0Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town0-1Annagh United
Warrenpoint Town2-1Annagh United
Annagh United0-1Warrenpoint Town
Annagh United1-1Warrenpoint Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrenpoint Town 1478 · Annagh United 1573

	Warrenpoint Town	Draw	Annagh United
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Annagh United (rating 1478 vs 1573).
H2H favours Annagh United: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrenpoint Town	Annagh United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:35 +4’	3.10	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warrenpoint Town 2–1–3 Annagh United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	0-1	Annagh United
03/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	1-0	Warrenpoint Town
20/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	0-1	Annagh United
29/04/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Warrenpoint Town	2-1	Annagh United
18/02/23 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	0-1 HT 0-1	Warrenpoint Town
12/11/22 Northern Ireland Championship	Annagh United	1-1	Warrenpoint Town

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newington FC	9	6	2	1	24	11	20
2	Annagh United	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Glenavon	9	5	2	2	22	13	17
4	Queens University	9	5	1	3	18	7	16
5	HW Welders	9	5	0	4	17	13	15
6	Newry City	9	4	3	2	15	16	15
7	Warrenpoint Town	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
8	Ballinamallard Utd	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
9	Institute	9	4	1	4	13	17	13
10	Dundela	9	2	5	2	18	18	11
11	Ards FC	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
12	Moyola Park	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
13	Loughgall	9	2	4	3	12	18	10
14	Strabane Athletic	9	2	2	5	10	19	8
15	Armagh City	9	0	4	5	8	16	4
16	Rathfriland Rangers	9	1	0	8	6	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrenpoint Town	Annagh United
Rathfriland Rangers	2-0 W	4-2 W
Institute	0-2 L	5-0 W
Moyola Park	6-2 W	2-0 W
Newington FC	0-1 L	1-4 L
Newry City	3-0 W	1-1 D
Ards FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
HW Welders	0-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrenpoint Town

LLWLWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	–	6-2	–	–	W
05/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	3-3	5	2	D
21/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
15/08	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-3	–	–	L
11/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
25/04	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-1	–	–	L

Annagh United

LLWDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Institute Northern Ireland Championship	3-0	5-0	7	7	W
18/09	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	3-1	6	7	W
04/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
29/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Moyola Park Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	Dundela Northern Ireland Championship	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
11/08	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	–	4-2	–	–	W
08/08	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
24/04	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-4	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Annagh United win (45%). Probabilities: Warrenpoint Town 29%, draw 26%, Annagh United 45%.

How many goals are expected in Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Warrenpoint Town 1.33 · Annagh United 1.69), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrenpoint Town vs Annagh United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.