Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Institute vs Moyola Park

Team pages: Institute · Moyola Park

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Institute2.11

Moyola Park1.18

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Institute Draw Moyola Park

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Institute 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLWDW

Moyola Park 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWLWL

Head-to-head

Institute 1–1–0 Moyola Park (2 last)

Moyola Park1-1Institute
Moyola Park1-3Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Institute 1509 · Moyola Park 1496

	Institute	Draw	Moyola Park
Our model	58%	23%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Institute	Moyola Park
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.57 ★
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	4.80 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +15’	1.50	4.20	4.80
08:02 +22’	1.55▲	4.10▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:14 +27’	1.57	3.88	4.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 1–1–0 Moyola Park

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/17 Northern Ireland League Cup	Moyola Park	1-1 HT 0-0	Institute
06/08/16 Northern Ireland League Cup	Moyola Park	1-3 HT 0-2	Institute

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	33	16	28
2	Newington FC	13	8	2	3	29	22	26
3	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
4	Ballinamallard Utd	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
5	Queens University	13	6	2	5	22	14	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
7	Newry City	13	5	4	4	20	22	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	18	23	17
10	Ards FC	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
11	HW Welders	13	5	1	7	19	22	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	13	4	1	8	14	25	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13	24	11
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Institute	Moyola Park
Ards FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
HW Welders	0-0 D	1-4 L
Newington FC	7-0 W	2-3 L
Annagh United	0-5 L	0-2 L
Warrenpoint Town	2-0 W	2-6 L
Armagh City	5-3 W	1-0 W
Queens University	1-4 L	1-0 W
Loughgall	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Institute (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Institute

DLLWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
03/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	7-0	–	–	W
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Moyola Park

WLWLLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-3	3	8	L
10/10	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
03/10	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/09	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-6	–	–	L
05/09	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/08	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
15/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Institute vs Moyola Park?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Institute win (58%). Probabilities: Institute 58%, draw 22%, Moyola Park 20%.

How many goals are expected in Institute vs Moyola Park?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Institute 2.11 · Moyola Park 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Institute vs Moyola Park?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.